The key moments that would ‘decide fate of Keir Starmer’ subsequent 12 months | EUROtoday

Sir Keir Starmer’s management faces a essential check subsequent May, with a outstanding polling knowledgeable predicting vital Labour losses throughout the UK.

Lord Robert Hayward has warned of heavy defeats in English council elections, a loss within the Welsh Senedd, and a “battering” within the Scottish Parliament on 7 May 2026.

Such bleak outcomes might reignite questions over Sir Keir’s place on the helm of the occasion following nameless briefings from his allies towards potential rivals that made headlines in November.

Although some councils are anticipated to defer polls to 2027 for native authorities reorganisation, elections are confirmed for London and metropolitan areas together with Merseyside, Greater Manchester, and Yorkshire.

While these areas have not too long ago been Labour-dominated, Lord Hayward stated the occasion was heading in the right direction for “very, very large” losses to Reform UK, the Greens, the Liberal Democrats and, in east London, pro-Gaza Independent candidates.

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Even the Conservatives might decide up seats in London, he stated, though the Tories’ general end result will rely closely on whether or not elections go forward in counties the place they gained closely in 2021 however now face main losses.

Gains in London councils corresponding to Westminster or Barnet might assist shore up Kemi Badenoch’s place as Conservative chief, which has come to appear safer in current months as her private polling improves.

Lord Hayward, a Conservative peer, stated: “A few months ago it looked as if May 7 would be decisive for the leaderships of both Labour and Conservatives.

“As we move into 2026 it now looks as if the May elections could decide the fate of Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves, but it is less clear that that will be the case for Kemi Badenoch.”

He added that whereas Labour and presumably the Conservatives have been heading in the right direction to lose seats in May, there could be no clear victor, however a “cacophony of winners”.

Reform, ranging from a low base, is more likely to take advantage of positive factors, Lord Hayward stated, however a spread of different events are anticipated to assert some form of victory on the night time, with a transparent image maybe solely rising within the days following the election.

Despite what may very well be vital modifications in England, Lord Hayward advised it was the ends in Scotland and Wales that would have essentially the most long-term significance for the UK.

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Last 12 months, Labour had been anticipating to supplant the SNP and return to energy at Holyrood in 2026.

But that prospect now appears unlikely, with Lord Hayward suggesting the occasion was heading in the right direction for “one hell of a battering” whereas the SNP, the Greens and Reform might do nicely.

In Wales, the image is extra sophisticated given the change within the electoral system, the rise within the dimension of the Senedd and the decreasing of the voting age to 16.

Especially in gentle of the Caerphilly by-election in October 2025, Plaid Cymru and Reform are in line to do nicely at Labour’s expense.

Success for the SNP and Plaid Cymru might have constitutional implications past the impression of the elections on Labour’s management.

The SNP is more likely to reopen calls for an additional independence referendum if it wins a majority in Holyrood, whereas main positive factors for Plaid Cymru might see extra vocal calls for for larger devolution to Wales.