Euro Stoxx 50: Dividend technique 2026 with Allianz & Vinci | EUROtoday

With the “conservative strategy”, an equally weighted basket of shares from normal shares from the Euro Stoxx 50 is introduced originally of every yr primarily based on the essential concept “stocks are better (government) bonds”. With a view to the value growth within the medium and long run, each a “buy and hold” technique for presidency bonds (from Germany) with a excessive credit standing and a passive funding within the Euro Stoxx 50 Net Return must be adopted. When deciding on the brand new inventory basket for 2026, the next scenario is at present happening within the Eurozone. Given the average financial restoration anticipated within the Eurozone, it ought to come as no shock if there may be little scope for value will increase for long-dated bonds.

It will subsequently be troublesome to attain a (gross) return on bonds within the vary of the anticipated euro inflation price (barely above 2.0 %) in 2026. In distinction, the technical bull market on the Euro inventory markets that has existed since October 2022 ought to proceed general in 2026, this time supported extra by expectations of upper company earnings. As a consequence, a inventory dividend technique has a superb probability of a optimistic return. The choice course of that has already been utilized in earlier years delivers this time the next equally weighted inventory basket of Euro Stoxx 50 shares (with the mix of enticing [Brutto-]dividend yields and an interesting general technical scenario): Allianz (hedging cease 315 euros), BASF (36 euros), DHL Group (33 euros), Inditex (40 euros), Sanofi (62 euros) and Vinci (97 euros).

The conservative technique for 2025 consisted of an equally weighted basket of shares consisting of Ahold Delhaize, Allianz, AXA, BMW St, Enel and Vinci. During the funding interval (begin: closing value on January 6, 2025), an general efficiency of plus 23.7 % was achieved. Dividends lowered by the respective country-specific tax charges are included right here proportionately. In the corresponding interval, the Euro Stoxx 50 Net Return, which additionally takes dividend funds lowered by country-specific tax charges under consideration within the index value growth, rose by 18.1 %. The “IBOXX Germany” (stands for IBOXX Euro Germany Sovereign Overall Total Return Index), a bond efficiency index that’s consultant of the yield curve of German authorities bonds, achieved a value growth of minus 0.70 % throughout this era. The outcomes of the varied methods in 2025 should nonetheless be considered towards the background of inflation charges of two.2 % within the euro zone and in Germany. If you add up the conservative methods introduced for the reason that starting of 2005 – with the respective swaps made originally of the yr – you get a complete improve of 213.7 %.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Net Return Index, which represents a “buy and hold” technique, has delivered a rise of 161.6 % for the reason that begin of 2005. An funding within the IBOXX Germany (previously within the REXP index) has gained 60.3 % for the reason that starting of 2005. In 2025, the technical evaluation dividend technique has considerably expanded its efficiency lead over the “buy and hold” technique for (authorities) bonds of the AAA borrower Federal Republic of Germany. If, for instance, authorities bonds from the euro zone or a mixture of euro authorities and company bonds (with funding grade) had been used as a reference for the bonds, relying on the weighting, the (gross) results of the bond funding would have improved, however even then the conservative technique would nonetheless have had a transparent lead in 2025.

The choice course of stays unchanged for the brand new inventory collection of the 2026 inventory basket. Firstly, the share must be included within the Euro Stoxx 50 and never be immediately on an computerized index elimination rank with a view to the common, annual index adjustment in September 2026. Second, the anticipated gross dividend yield must be above 3.0 %. Thirdly, the shares ought to have a lovely general technical image and thus the possibility of their very own momentum (upward) in value growth. Fourth, there must be diversification (shares from a number of sectors and international locations). Fifth, danger administration is carried out. Each title receives a conservative, strategic hedging freeze, which is lowered over the course of the yr by the quantity of gross dividends paid or by the consequences of company actions.

If the inventory falls beneath this security cease, the place is routinely closed. This danger administration is meant to guard the funding on this basket of shares towards a pronounced bear market. Sixth, within the occasion that two or extra shares from the present basket of shares fall beneath their hedging stops, the money might be reinvested in new Euro Stoxx 50 shares (analogous choice course of) originally of the subsequent quarter. This is meant to make sure that the inventory basket is expounded to the index.

From a technical perspective, Allianz is among the long-term defensive development shares on the European inventory markets, which additionally gives the mix of a pretty general technical scenario and a lovely (gross) dividend yield. From a technical perspective, the worth has been in a bull market for the reason that flip of the yr 2008/2009 (monetary disaster) and costs round 48 euros, which in flip consists of the interaction of regular bull developments, medium-term corrections and (intermediate) bear markets. After the Corona bear market, which pushed the shares all the way down to 117.1 euros and thus into the realm of ​​the long-term help zone round 118 euros, a bullish development adopted. This ended beneath the resistance zone round 232.6 euros (pre-Corona degree). This was adopted by a sideways pendulum motion with a trend-confirming character (upwards).

At the flip of the yr 2023/2024, Allianz began with an funding purchase sign (soar above 232.6 euros) and, parallel to the rising 200-day line (at present at 355 euros), developed a brand new bull market with the bull development line at present at 340 euros. Most just lately, the title moved beneath the small resistance zone round 380.3 euros in a trend-confirming consolidation (upward triangle). The inventory is at present engaged on a brand new purchase sign (sustainable soar above 380.3 euros) and thus on a continuation of the bull market and overcoming the outdated all-time highs at 395.0 euros (from 2000). This suggests the subsequent medium-term goal is the realm round 430 euros. With a dividend improve to an anticipated 16.50 euros (after 15.40 euros in 2025; subsequent AGM on May 7, 2026), Allianz ought to supply an anticipated gross dividend yield of 4.2 %. Due to this general mixture, the inventory shouldn’t be lacking from the inventory basket for the conservative technique 2026 with a strategic hedging cease at 315 euros.

Achim Matzke is managing director of Matzke Research.