Wars to look at: What subsequent for the world in Trump’s second yr in workplace? | EUROtoday

The first few weeks of 2026 have felt like a lifetime. They observe a yr of unprecedented international occasions triggered by Donald Trump’s overseas coverage that has rocked the world and the world order.

In lower than a month, we have now seen the US seize the president of Venezuela, threaten to bomb Iran, and vow to take over Nato associate Greenland, whereas briefly threatening sanctions on anybody who opposed that.

So what can the world anticipate as we transfer into the second yr of Trump’s second time period in workplace?

How far does his America First coverage go? What does his Don-Roe doctrine imply for the course of this new world?

And which crises and conflicts are prone to wreak havoc this yr?

The most speedy concern is Trump’s willpower to take over mineral-rich, strategically positioned Greenland, a semi-autonomous state of Nato-ally Denmark.

Although he has stepped again from navy motion, his want to personal the “piece of ice” stays undiminished. During his speech in Davos, he insulted Europe – and its leaders – criticising them on migration and power, in addition to defence. The alliance’s strongest member isn’t enjoying good.

Rose Gottemoeller, who served as Nato’s deputy secretary common throughout Trump’s first administration, informed The Independent that Washington’s more and more erratic indicators, she mentioned, elevate doubts about its dedication to the US nuclear umbrella over Europe, which unofficial studies counsel consists of round 100 warheads.

This, in flip, might set off a brand new period of nuclear proliferation, one thing already being mentioned in components of Europe, together with Germany.

Ukraine is at a important juncture: there are determined hopes that talks might convey an finish to 4 years of Russia’s invasion of the nation. Talks in Abu Dhabi between officers from US, Russia and Ukraine have thus far proved inconclusive as there’s one massive elephant within the room – the row over territory.

Trump is arguably the one ally of Ukraine with sufficient energy to drive Vladimir Putin to the negotiating desk and conform to a ceasefire that isn’t merely a dressed-up give up for Kyiv. But more and more, it feels as if Trump doesn’t care sufficient concerning the final result for the Ukrainians.

His America First so-called isolationism, overtures to the Russian president over territory features, public berating of Volodymyr Zelensky, and obvious indifference to Ukraine’s issues {that a} peace deal might result in renewed conflict with Russia sooner or later don’t bode properly.

It can be regarding that the US is sending indicators that sovereignty doesn’t matter, as seen within the justification of the US seize of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro, and his hardline stance on Greenland.

“It is creating a precedent that countries like Russia… will take as affirmation,” General Sir Richard Barrons, the previous Commander of Joint Forces Command, mentioned at a latest Chatham House occasion.

It smacks of a worldview through which superpowers merely “carve up spheres of influence between them,” he added.

The UK and its European allies within the Coalition of the Willing have stepped up, saying this month that British and French troops would deploy to Ukraine as a safety assure ought to a deal undergo. But the query stays whether or not Europe by itself might be sufficient.

A telling warning was issued by the US Federal Aviation Administration on January 16 that airways ought to train warning when flying over Mexico, Central America, and components of South America reminiscent of Colombia, citing dangers linked to “potential military activities”.

The warnings, which can final 60 days, come amid hovering tensions between the US and South American leaders following Trump’s large-scale navy build-up within the southern Caribbean, the assault on Venezuela, and Trump’s repeated threats of motion in neighbouring Colombia, Cuba, and, most not too long ago, in opposition to drug cartels in Mexico.

Perhaps the largest shift in US overseas coverage since Trump’s second time period started has been the elevation of Latin America to one of many highest priorities within the US’s nationwide safety technique.

This is all a part of Trump’s Don-Roe doctrine – his private retelling of the 200-year-old playbook of President James Monroe, geared toward restoring US pre-eminence over the western hemisphere, the place powers reminiscent of China have gained growing affect.

China is now Latin America’s second-largest buying and selling associate after the US, and funding ties are rising.

This is clearly one thing Trump and his Secretary of State, Mark Rubio, an American Cuban himself, are eager to halt.

Earlier this month, Trump warned the Cuban authorities to “make a deal or face the consequences” with out elaborating.

Trump has additionally engaged in a disagreement on-line with Colombian President Gustavo Petro, whom he unceremoniously informed to “watch his ass”.

The White House will depend on cooperation with Mexico to stem migration, and Mexico depends on the US as a serious coaching associate. But Trump’s latest feedback about launching US strikes on Mexican drug cartels have already triggered alarm.

Let us not overlook Trump’s authentic threats to annex the Panama Canal. Emboldened by his actions in Venezuela and pushed by his ambitions over Greenland, nothing seems to be off the desk.

China and its eyes on Taiwan

The US intelligence place has lengthy been that China is making ready its navy to be able to invading Taiwan by 2027. That deadline is now solely a yr away. It feels nearer nonetheless after China’s stay hearth navy drills round Taiwan on the finish of final yr, and Xi Jinping’s vow to reunify China and Taiwan in his New Year’s Eve speech.

It is likely to be why there’s way more emphasis on Taiwan in Trump’s nationwide safety technique than below earlier US administrations.

Protecting Taiwan from China is, in accordance with the doc, key to sustaining American “economic and technological pre-eminence”, due each to its semiconductor manufacturing and its strategic location.

At the identical time, Trump’s strategy to China stays transactional and ambiguous. He publicly cultivated a private rapport with Xi Jinping and informed The New York Times this month he mentioned it’s as much as the Chinese chief to determine Taiwan’s future.

Analysts see the Taiwan Strait because the most definitely flashpoint for a battle between the United States and China. But the potential value of conflict is extraordinarily excessive.

The Middle East and Trump’s Board of Peace

At the beginning of 2026, the Middle East feels much less of an pressing precedence for a US president. That mentioned, over the previous yr, he has joined Israel in bombing Iran, inspired protesters to overthrow the federal government in Tehran, pushed via a truce deal for Gaza, and welcomed Syria’s new president as an “attractive tough guy”.

Last week, he inaugurated his “Board of Peace”, which was nominally tasked with enacting his 20-point plan for Gaza after a devastating conflict with Israel. But in accordance with leaked particulars of their constitution – which the US claims practically 60 international locations have signed onto – it might have a a lot wider, UN-level scope, conflicts properly past this troubled area.

The indications thus far counsel a US president who doesn’t need in depth boots on the bottom within the area. He appears extra energised by placing trillion-dollar offers with the Gulf states, buying glitzy new planes or describing actual property alternatives for the “Gaza Riviera”, or New Gaza.

That mentioned, his claims on Friday that an “Armada” of navy ships are crusing in direction of Iran means nothing could be dominated out.