Georgieva (IMF): «The struggle in Iran slows down world development» | EUROtoday

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«If there hadn’t been this shock, we’d have raised world development forecasts. But now, even our most favorable state of affairs factors to a downturn.” The analysis of the director general of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, can only confirm what has already been indicated by every office concerned with the effects of the war in Iran. How large the difference will be compared to the growth that would have occurred without this conflict, and therefore how high the toll the world will have to pay, will depend on its duration and the damage it will leave behind.

The braking

Georgieva spoke on Thursday 9 April from Washington headquarters, where the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank will be held next week, with the publication of updated forecasts. At the end of the usual speech that always launches the meetings of the two institutions, Georgieva held a conversation with the president of the Council on Foreign Relations, Michael Froman, a political analyst.

The war in the Middle East will obviously dominate the discussions. Without providing figures, for which we will have to wait until Tuesday, the IMF number one indicated that a weakening of the general picture is expected, despite the push that continues to come from investments in artificial intelligence.

In January, the Fund had estimated a global GDP increase of 3.3% for 2026, identical to that recorded in 2025. With a downward correction, the forecasts would therefore indicate a slowdown, compared to a growth rate that is already historically low.

The IMF will illustrate varied attainable situations, with beginning hypotheses of various severity, which result in proportionate results on the world economic system. However, the injury suffered by infrastructure, provide interruptions, lack of confidence and different lasting results are already similar to to result in a downward revision, even in probably the most favorable state of affairs.