Until the election: “Union has a Merz problem” – election researchers count on growing reputation for Habeck | EUROtoday

Two months earlier than the federal election, the Elections Research Group attests that the Greens have untapped potential. “The Greens are currently the bogeyman for many right-wing voters. The mobilization against the Greens seems to me to have been exhausted,” mentioned Matthias Jung, board member of the elections analysis group, to the “Tagesspiegel”: “But the Greens still have potential when it comes to mobilizing centrist voters.”

As a results of the low reputation of CDU/CSU chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz and Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD), Jung expects a pattern in favor of Habeck. “In the end, Habeck and the Greens can benefit from the weaknesses of Merz and Scholz,” mentioned election researcher Jung.

As folks and with their election applications, Merz and Scholz targeted on the core voters of their events. “You are leaving an unnecessary amount of space in the political center. Middle-class voters who see themselves as neither conservative nor left-wing could opt for Habeck and the Greens, who present themselves as relatively centrist.”

The chance that Merz will change into Chancellor after the election on February 23, 2025 is “quite high,” mentioned Jung: “But the case of a parliamentary majority without the Union can also occur.” The violent assaults from the CDU and CSU in opposition to the The Greens may imply {that a} potential calculated majority wouldn’t be politically potential.

Scholz: boring and weak in decision-making

Merz himself contributed rather a lot to his “mediocre image,” which now made it tough for him to achieve widespread assist, mentioned Jung. “He positioned himself in a pointedly conservative and economically liberal manner, instead of using the entire spectrum of the Union. “He has unnecessarily narrowed the programmatic range that the Union has always had,” said Jung: “Therefore the Union has a Merz problem.” Added to this is a “certain lack of control”, which is a danger to himself and thus to the chances of success of the Union Union is.

The lack of support for Scholz from SPD supporters, however, makes the SPD candidate “vulnerable,” mentioned Jung. Scholz has the picture of being boring, reserved and weak in decision-making. He interprets himself as “prudent”. But “his recent, sometimes violently emotional statements are damaging this remaining positive aspect of his image.” In addition, the federal government led by Scholz failed.