Wealthy nations curb labor migration as demand surges – DW – 12/17/2025 | EUROtoday

The world’s wealthiest economies are crying out for overseas staff, regardless of rising anti‑immigration sentiment, significantly within the United States and Europe. Yet a little-discussed report launched final month reveals labor migration is falling globally, at the same time as ageing societies face mounting shortages.

The decline started properly earlier than the reelection of Donald Trump, who campaigned final yr on a promise to sharply curb immigration.

According to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which tracks world financial and social coverage, work-related migration to its 38 member states dropped by greater than a fifth final yr (21%).

The OECD’s International Migration Outlook 2025 report discovered the drop was pushed much less by demand than by rising political opposition to immigration and tighter visa regimes in different superior economies. Temporary work migration continued to rise.

Decline pushed by two international locations

“Most of the … decline in permanent labor migration was driven by policy changes in the United Kingdom and New Zealand,” Ana Damas de Matossenior coverage analyst on the OECD, instructed DW. “In both cases, permanent labor migration remained above 2019 levels.”

In New Zealand, the drop was tied to the top of a one‑off submit‑pandemic residence pathway that had allowed greater than 200,000 short-term migrants and dependents to settle completely. The nation’s largest one-off residency scheme closed in July 2022.

Post-Brexit, the UK reformed the Health and Care Worker visa route, tightening employer eligibility and barring dependents, leading to a pointy discount in visa purposes. The OECD singled out well being care as a sector the place curbs danger deepening labor shortages.

Seeta Sharma, a migration specialist who has suggested the United Nations in addition to India’s nationwide and state governments, warned that the UK’s reforms, together with a transfer to tighten eligibility for worldwide college students hoping to work after commencement, may backfire.

“The student‑to‑work pathway is now being curtailed,” Sharma instructed DW. “When that happens, applications will slow, because Indians, for example, are not going to spend large sums on education abroad if there’s no clear return on investment.”

The OECD report confirmed that India was by far the most important nation of origin for migrant staff settling in its member international locations at 600,000 final yr, adopted by China and Romania.

US curbs on high-skilled visas threaten tech sector

In the US, stricter caps on H‑1B visas — the primary program that enables overseas professionals in fields like know-how, engineering and drugs to work within the nation — had been launched beneath the Biden administration. Trump has since considerably elevated the visa price for employers to $100,000 (€84,800), up from $2000-$5000. His broader agenda has targeted on limiting everlasting pathways.

Australia, in the meantime, raised wage thresholds for expert visas, whereas Canada adjusted pathways for short-term staff, additionally contributing to the broader decline in job-related migration. Nordic international locations additionally noticed giant declines, with Finland recording a 36% drop in comparison with the earlier yr.

In Germany, former Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s tighter immigration insurance policies helped a 12% fall in everlasting migration inflows final yr, when 586,000 overseas staff entered the nation. The variety of folks arriving on work visas was 32% decrease than the earlier yr. These reforms have been expanded by his successor, Friedrich Merz’s authorities.

Herbert Brücker, professor of economics at Berlin’s Humboldt University, thinks the declines are storing up hassle for the German economic system.

“For many years, Germany benefited from an average migration of 550,000 people per year,” Brücker instructed DW. “We need migration to replace retiring workers. Without it, we cannot hold the labor supply stable.”

Strong demand for migrants in Europe

Across the European Union, round two‑thirds of jobs created between 2019 and 2023 had been crammed by non‑EU residents, in line with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), underscoring how dependent Europe has already turn out to be on migrant labor.

Globally, there have been 167.7 million migrant staff in 2022, in line with International Labor Organization (ILO) estimates. This accounted for 4.7% of the full world labor pressure. More than two-thirds of them (114.7 million) lived in high-income international locations.

Despite final yr’s drop, world work-related migration stays above pre-pandemic ranges. But the OECD report reveals how these inflows will be abruptly curbed by political resistance, stoked by fears over unlawful migration, slightly than financial demand, which stays at document highs.

Trump’s second‑time period agenda has amplified that dynamic, with govt orders enacted since he returned to workplace in January aimed toward curbing each authorized and unlawful immigration. The Trump administration argues these are essential to safeguard US staff and guarantee a expertise‑primarily based system.

Temporary visas over everlasting pathways

Temporary or seasonal labor migration held regular final yr at the same time as everlasting inflows declined, in line with the OECD report, reflecting governments’ choice for short-term schemes they will broaden or contract at will.

“The appetite is: ‘Let’s get in people when we want them and close the doors when we don’t. But let’s not have these “completely different” people in our land permanently,'” Sharma lamented.

Seasonal and short-term employee packages stay in demand throughout Australia, Europe and North America, the place employers within the agriculture, care and building sectors have plugged gaps of their workforce.

The OECD notes that short-term migration packages are more and more used for know-how and different excessive‑expert staff, too.

Red tape retains migrants in lower-skilled jobs

As properly as attracting extra work-based migrants, the OECD urged superior economies to concentrate on higher integrating them into the labor market. The membership of superior economies cited language coaching and entry to social companies as key necessities, together with the recognition of expertise and {qualifications} to assist overseas staff contribute absolutely of their host international locations. Often, they’re employed in a lot lower-skilled jobs than they skilled for.

Brücker, who can be head of migration analysis at Germany’s Institute for Employment Research (IAB), famous that reforms supposed to make Europe’s largest economic system extra engaging have not labored because of a gradual and bureaucratic approval course of.

“The recognition of degrees and vocational training takes years and that makes it difficult for skilled workers to come,” he instructed DW. As a end result, we are actually wanting round three million staff.”

Policymakers are additionally being urged to create clearer pathways that enable short-term migrant staff to transition into everlasting standing, guaranteeing their expertise are absolutely utilized and decreasing labor shortages.

While Trump typically speaks positively concerning the want for expertise‑primarily based migration, his first yr again within the White House has been marked by efforts to dismantle these avenues, reinforcing the divide between financial want and political will.

Sharma famous that often-angry rhetoric by Trump and different right-wing politicians over immigration sends “shock waves” internationally, shaping perceptions in India and past.

“The story coming back is that this is an unfriendly country, where it’s tough to get a job … those narratives play a huge part in migration movements,” Sharma instructed DW, including that if the US continues to curb work-related immigration, it may result in extra unlawful migrant flows.

Edited by: Uwe Hessler