“The ineligibility of Marine Le Pen could be, politically, the worst scenario” | EUROtoday

Marine Le Pen can be selected her destiny in just a few months: the choice of the Paris Court of Appeal is predicted earlier than the summer season of 2026, as a part of the attraction trial within the case of the European parliamentary assistants of the National Front (now National Rally, RN). The requisition made by the attorneys normal on Tuesday, February 3, makes his fourth candidacy for the presidential election in 2027 extra unsure than ever: 5 years of ineligibility have been required – in addition to 4 years in jail, together with one and a 100,000 euro fantastic.

Many see the possible ineligibility of Marine Le Pen as excellent news in itself. As if eradicating him from the sport was sufficient to cease the political dynamics of the far proper. However, the ineligibility of Marine Le Pen may very well be, politically, the worst state of affairs. And for good purpose: it will open the best way to a way more harmful political recomposition – that of an alliance with a tough, authoritarian, however “respectable” proper, with media and monetary relays already in place.

The challenge seems extra clearly if we distinguish two doable configurations. First state of affairs: if Marine Le Pen can run, she’s going to stay the pure candidate of the RN. The political configuration would then be usually readable: the get together would stay one of many two structuring blocs of the second spherical.

Facade benefit

We hear rather a lot a few “union of the rights”, that’s to say an alliance of the best and the acute proper, inspired by actors just like the billionaires Vincent Bolloré and Edouard Stérin. But so long as M^me Le Pen is a candidate, she has good causes to not be related to it: she has little interest in diluting her management, nor in sharing the stage with Les Républicains (LR) – and even with ex-macronists. She additionally clearly acknowledged that she was not in favor of the “union of the rights”.

The Freedom Summit, organized by the Bolloré and Stérin networks in June 2025 on the Casino de Paris, illustrates the highly effective infrastructure that helps this union. Present have been far-right political figures in favor of a union with the best – Jordan Bardella, Eric Ciotti, Sarah Knafo, Marion Maréchal. But, right here once more, the absence of Marine Le Pen confirmed the bounds of the operation, so long as it’s she who runs the RN home.

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