I’m an knowledgeable on Iran. Here’s what may occur subsequent after US strikes | EUROtoday

After U.S. and Israeli missiles struck Iran’s nuclear websites in June 2025, Tehran responded with a restricted assault on the American airbase in Qatar.

Five years earlier than that, a U.S. drone strike towards Qasem Soleimani, head of the highly effective Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force, was met with adopted by an assault on two American bases in Iraq shortly thereafter.

Expect none of that restraint by Iran’s leaders following the most recent U.S. and Israeli army operation presently taking part in out within the Gulf nation.

In the early hours of Feb. 28, 2026, a whole lot of missiles struck a number of websites in Iran. Part of “Operation Epic Fury,” because the U.S. Department of Defense has known as it, the strikes observe months of U.S. army buildup within the area.

But additionally they come after obvious diplomatic efforts, within the form of a sequence of nuclear talks in Oman and Geneva geared toward a peaceable decision.

Any such deal is definitely now utterly off the desk. In scale and scope, the U.S. and Israel assault goes far past any earlier strikes on the Gulf nation.

In response, Iran has mentioned it should use “crushing” power. As an knowledgeable on Middle East affairs and a former senior official on the National Security Council in the course of the first Trump administration, I imagine the calculus each in Washington and extra so in Tehran may be very completely different from earlier confrontations: Iran’s leaders virtually actually see this as an existential risk given President Donald Trump’s assertion and the army marketing campaign already underway. And there seems to be no apparent off-ramp to keep away from additional escalation.

What we should always count on now’s a response from Tehran that makes use of all of its capabilities – regardless that they’ve been considerably degraded. And that ought to be a fear for all nations within the area and past.

The obvious goals of the US operation

It is necessary to notice that we’re within the early levels of this battle – a lot is unknown.

As of Feb. 28, it’s unclear who has been killed amongst Iran’s management and to what extent Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities have been degraded. The indisputable fact that ballistic missiles have been launched at regional states that host U.S. army bases means that, at a minimal, Iran’s army capabilities haven’t been fully worn out.

Iran fired over 600 missiles towards Israel final June throughout their 12-day struggle, however media reporting and Iranian statements over the previous month recommended that Iran managed to replenish a few of its missile stock, which it’s now utilizing.

Clearly Washington is intent on crippling Iran’s ballistic program, as it’s that functionality that enables Iran to threaten the area most instantly.

A sticking level within the negotiations in Geneva and Oman was U.S. officers’ insistence that each Iran’s ballistic missiles and its funneling of help to proxy teams within the area be on the desk, together with the longstanding situation that Tehran ends all uranium enrichment. Tehran has lengthy resisted makes an attempt to have limits on its ballistic missiles as a part of any negotiated nuclear deal given their significance in Iran’s nationwide safety doctrine.

This explains why some U.S. and Israeli strikes look like geared toward taking out Iran’s ballistic and cruise missile launch websites and manufacturing services and storage areas for such weapons.

With no nuclear weapon, Iran’s ballistic missiles have been the nation’s go-to methodology for responding to any risk. And thus far within the present battle, they’ve been used on nations together with the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain.

‘It will be yours to take’

But the Trump administration seems to have expanded its goals past eradicating Iran’s nuclear and non-nuclear army risk. The newest strikes have gone after management, too.

Among the areas of the primary U.S.-Israeli strikes was a Tehran compound by which the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in identified to reside, and Israel’s prime minister has confirmed that the 86-year-old chief was a goal of the operation.

While the standing of the supreme chief and different key members of Iran’s management stays unknown as of this writing, it’s clear that the U.S. administration hopes that regime change will observe Operation Epic Fury. “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take,” Trump advised Iranians through a video message recorded in the course of the early hours of the assault.

Regime change carries dangers for Trump

Signaling a regime change operation might encourage Iranians sad with many years of repressive rule and financial woes to proceed the place they left off in January – when a whole lot of hundreds took to the road to protest.

But it carries dangers for the U.S. and its pursuits. Iran’s leaders will now not really feel constrained, as they did after the Soleimani assassination and the June 2025 battle. On these events, Iran responded in a means that was not even proportionate to its losses – restricted strikes on American army bases within the area.

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Now the gloves are off, and both sides shall be making an attempt to land a knockout blow. But what does that represent? The U.S. administration seems to be set on regime change. Iran’s management shall be searching for one thing that goes past its earlier retaliatory strikes – and that possible means American deaths. That eventuality has been anticipated by Trump, who warned that there could be American casualties.

So why is Trump keen to threat that now? It is obvious to me that regardless of speak of progress within the rounds of diplomatic talks, Trump has misplaced his endurance with the method.

On Feb. 26, after the most recent spherical of talks in Geneva, we didn’t hear a lot from the U.S. facet. Trump’s calculus might have been that Iran wasn’t taking the trace – made clear by including a second service strike group to the opposite warships and a whole lot of fighter plane despatched to the area over the previous a number of weeks – that Tehran had no choice apart from agreeing to the U.S. calls for.

What occurs subsequent

What we don’t know is whether or not the U.S. technique is now to pause and see if an preliminary spherical of strikes has pressured Iran to sue for peace – or whether or not the preliminary strikes are only a prelude to extra to return.

For now, the diplomatic ship seems to have sailed. Trump appears to haven’t any urge for food for a deal now – he simply desires Iran’s regime gone.

In order to do this, he has made plenty of calculated gambles. First politically and legally: Trump didn’t undergo Congress earlier than ordering Operation Epic Fury. Unlike 23 years in the past when President George W. Bush took the U.S. into Iraq, there is no such thing as a struggle authorization giving the president cowl.

Instead, White House legal professionals will need to have assessed that Trump can perform this operation below his Article 2 powers to behave as commander in chief. Even so, the 1973 War Powers Act will imply the clock is now ticking. If the assaults usually are not concluded in 60 days, the administration should return to Congress and say the operation is full, or work with Congress for an authorization to make use of power or a proper declaration of struggle.

The second gamble is whether or not Iranians will heed his name to take away a regime that many have lengthy needed gone. Given the ferocity of the regime’s response to the protests in January, which resulted within the deaths of hundreds of Iranians, are Iranians keen to face down Iran’s inside safety forces and drive what stays of the regime from energy?

Third, the U.S. administration has made a wager that the Iranian regime – even confronted with an existential risk – doesn’t have the potential to pull the U.S. right into a prolonged battle to inflict large casualties.

And this final level is essential. Experts know Tehran has no nuclear bomb and solely has a restricted stockpile of drones and cruise and ballistic missiles.

But it may possibly lean on unconventional capabilities. Terrorism is an actual concern – both by way of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force, which coordinates Iran’s unconventional warfare, or by way of its partnership with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Or actors just like the Houthis in Yemen or Shia militias in Iraq might search to conduct assaults towards U.S. pursuits in solidarity with Iran or directed to take action by the regime.

A mass casualty occasion might put political strain on Trump, however I can’t see it resulting in U.S. boots on floor in Iran. The American public doesn’t have the urge for food for such an eventuality, and that may necessitate Trump gaining Congressional approval, which for now has not but materialized.

No one has a crystal ball, and it’s early in an operation that can possible go on for days, if not longer. But one factor is obvious: Iran’s regime is dealing with an existential risk. Do not count on it to point out restraint.