Khamenei’s dying and challenges for Moscow | EUROtoday

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First the Syrian president Bashar al-Assadthen the Venezuelan chief Nicolas Maduro and now the Iranian Supreme Leader, theAyatollah Ali Khamenei. In the house of a yr and a half, Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin has misplaced lots of his most important international allies and the Kremlin, mired within the warfare in Ukraine, is struggling to react.

So far, Putin has despatched a letter of condolence to the president Masoud Pezeshkian, describing Khamenei as “an outstanding statesman who has made immense personal contributions to the development of friendly relations between Russia and Iran.” While denouncing a “cynical violation” of “morality and international law”, Putin and the Russian authorities haven’t formally introduced any concrete assist to Tehran within the face of steady American and Israeli air assaults. Furthermore, yesterday, based on Moscow, it was the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to name his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrovin the beginning of the assaults.

A troublesome friendship

For Russian professional Alexander Baunov of the Carnegie Center, Khamenei’s dying places the Russian president in a “difficult situation.” Since the re-election of Donald TrumpPutin tried to achieve Washington’s favor in negotiations to finish the warfare in Ukraine. But the US seize of Maduro on January 3 marked the lack of one other accomplice for Moscow. Here too, the Kremlin discovered itself helpless. “Twice in two months, Putin failed to fulfill his role as a savior,” Baunov famous on his Telegram account. And, in Khamenei’s case, based on the professional “the killer is his friend Trump”. Previously, Putin had not less than managed to assist former Ukrainian chief Viktor Yanukovych discover refuge in Russia in February 2014. He had additionally supplied asylum to Bashar al-Assad and his household after his fall in Syria in December 2024.

Field invasion

Unlike the Maduro case, Khamenei’s dying occurred in part of the world that Russia considers its “hemisphere”explains Baounov. The professional compares this assassination to that of the Libyan chief and Kremlin ally Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 which, based on Baounov, marked “a turning point in Russian politics” and one of many factors that Putin exploited to “break with the West”. Tehran is amongst Moscow’s closest allies in the course of the offensive in Ukraine.

Uncertain provides

Kiev and the West accuse Tehran of supplying Moscow with weapons and navy expertise, such because the Shahed drones that Russia makes use of each day to bomb Ukraine. Furthermore, final yr Russia and Iran signed a strategic partnership to strengthen their ties, together with within the navy sphere. In addition to the lack of a key ally in Khamenei, the implications for Moscow of the continued battle in Iran are nonetheless troublesome to evaluate. The Russian parliamentarian Anatoly Vassermaninterviewed by Russian media outlet MK.ru, mentioned the warfare may benefit Russia within the brief time period if it led to a pointy rise in oil costs, however might pose “serious problems” for the United States and Israel in the long run if Iranian authorities “resist it.”