chronicle of a political majority that can’t be discovered | EUROtoday

A halt to Gérald Darmanin’s Immigration regulation. The rejection movement offered by environmentalists, Monday December 11 within the National Assembly, was permitted by 270 votes to 265, stopping its examination within the Hemicycle regardless that it had been voted on – in a really hardened type – in November within the Senate.

Gérald Darmanin proposed his resignation to Emmanuel Macron, who “refused” it, introduced the Elysée. Emmanuel Macron is anticipating proposals from the federal government to carry the “blockages” and “result in an effective legal text”, specified the Elysée. Elisabeth Borne invited the ministers involved and the presidents of the parliamentary teams of the bulk on Monday night for a disaster assembly. Gérald Darmanin, who was assured of succeeding to find a majority on this textual content, regardless of a number of warnings from LR, finally didn’t achieve his guess.

The movement to reject was supported, along with left-wing elected officers, by the deputies Les Républicains (LR) and Rassemblement nationwide (RN). The authorities now has three choices: the whole withdrawal of the textual content, its referral for second studying to the Senate or the convening of a joint committee. “It is a failure, obviously, because I want to give the police, the gendarmes, the prefects, the magistrates the means to fight against irregular immigration,” the minister declared on TF1.

Whatever he decides, it’s already a political failure for Gérald Darmanin, who has continued to court docket the precise for months in an effort to acquire a majority, going as far as to fulfill with a big rewriting of his invoice handed in a Senate managed by LR.

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Problem: the steadiness of energy isn’t the identical within the National Assembly. The left wing of the presidential majority and the left-wing deputies – from the Socialist Party (PS), Europe Écologie-Les Verts (EELV), the Communist Party (PCF) and La France insoumise (LFI) – have first unraveled in committee, from November 27 to December 2, many of the measures launched by the precise within the Senate. So a lot in order that the textual content offered Monday afternoon within the Hemicycle not actually resembled that voted within the Senate, to the nice dismay of LR.

“We are asking the President of the Republic to review his copy. (…) The government, if it wants to take up this text, is obliged to start from the version toughened by the Senate”, affirmed the president of the LR group, Olivier Marleix, after this coup de theater on the Palais Bourbon.

Divisions even within the majority

By present process the primary rejection movement adopted by the National Assembly because the creation of this process in 2019, the federal government is thus reaching the bounds of the “at the same time” advocated by Emmanuel Macron since 2017. What was doable in the course of the first five-year time period, with an absolute majority, is not so with a relative majority and strengthened oppositions. Even extra so in the case of an Immigration regulation whose origin is above all political and to be discovered within the authorities’s need to not depart to the acute proper a theme on which it thrives.

“The President of the Republic thought-about it obligatory to answer what he believes to be a requirement from public opinion within the face of the multitude of occasions which, within the information, have highlighted the questions of immigration. Hence the will of the chief to indicate residents that it’s on the initiative and that it’s taking motion,” analyzes political scientist Bruno Cautres, researcher at Cevipof.

Result: to fulfill the 72% of French individuals who think about higher management of immigration obligatory, in keeping with a current Odoxa survey for Public Senate and the regional press, the invoice has a extra muscular proper leg than its left leg. But not sufficient to fulfill the precise and the far proper, who intend to abolish state medical assist (AME) and completely don’t wish to hear concerning the regularization of undocumented staff. And far an excessive amount of for the left, for whom this doable regularization isn’t sufficient to make us overlook the restrictions on entry to residence permits for care, the tightening of household reunification or the institution of an annual debate on migratory quotas.

Finally, and that is maybe an important information for Gérald Darmanin, even Macronie is split on this textual content. The left wing of Renaissance, led particularly by the president of the regulation fee Sacha Houlié, didn’t digest the concessions made to the Senate by their Minister of the Interior, particularly on the AME, the regularization of the homeless. papers in professions in pressure or the offense of unlawful residence – since deleted in committee.

“We have red lines,” he declared on Sunday in Les Échos. “It would be irresponsible to go beyond our political DNA (…). The adoption of the text cannot be done at the cost of dividing the majority,” he warned.

“A subject which reveals the contradictions of macronism”

“It is very difficult to obtain consensus on immigration, which generates a lot of diversity of points of view and a clear divide between right and left,” observes Bruno Cauprès. There was loads of hesitation throughout months of the a part of the federal government. The dosage was too tough to seek out as a result of that is sometimes the type of topic the place the contradictions of macronism can seem.”

The contortions of the Minister of the Interior, particularly, left their mark. Capable sooner or later of being glad with the textual content voted within the Senate regardless that it bore no resemblance to the invoice initially offered, and one other of applauding with each fingers the model largely revised in committee of the National Assembly.

For Gérald Darmanin, who hoped to hold an Immigration regulation on his board, as his mentor Nicolas Sarkozy had accomplished in his time, a rejection movement is a political failure. Summoned by Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne to discover a majority, he is aware of that the passage of a movement to reject is sort of much more damaging than resorting to 49.3 to have the textual content adopted.

“It’s a failure because he kept saying that he would find a majority. He relied a lot on his direct contacts with his former LR comrades and on the fact that some of the LR deputies said that the text would in a good way, underlines Bruno Cautres. This motion of rejection undermines his political capital and the image he wanted to have of someone who has a sense of negotiations.”

But this rejection of the Immigration regulation within the National Assembly is above all embarrassing for the chief as a complete and particularly for Élisabeth Borne, who dangers, if she intends to undertake this textual content regardless of the whole lot, having to make use of 49.3 as soon as once more , i.e. the twenty first^e in a yr and a half at Matignon. Enough to pose a critical political downside, notably after its controversial use within the spring on pension reform.