climatologists very skeptical concerning the settlement | EUROtoday

Shile the adoption on Wednesday at COP28 in Dubai of a compromise paving the way in which for the gradual abandonment of fossil fuels, the primary culprits of worldwide warming, was welcomed by many leaders, climatologists are way more skeptical. Although “the lack of agreement on the gradual elimination of fossil fuels” has been “devastating so far”, the textual content permitted on Wednesday “is not really convincing”, judges Michael Mann, climatologist and geophysicist on the University of Pennsylvania.

“It’s like promising your doctor to give up donuts when you are diagnosed with diabetes,” summarizes the professional to Agence France-Presse, noting that the settlement doesn’t embrace any date for the exit from fossil fuels. exact, nor indication on the extent of the measures to be taken by the nations.

Adopted on Wednesday by consensus, the textual content constitutes an imperfect compromise for a lot of delegates and NGOs. It doesn’t immediately name for an exit from fossil fuels, disappointing the hundred nations which demanded it, and comprises loopholes for nations wishing to proceed the exploitation of their hydrocarbon reserves.

“Many will die”

The settlement of the 28^e UN local weather convention “is hailed as a compromise, but we must be very clear about what has been compromised,” insists Friederike Otto, climatologist specializing within the evaluation of the position of local weather change on sure excessive climate phenomena.

“The short-term financial interests of a few have once again trumped the health, lives and livelihoods of most people on this planet,” she criticizes. And to proceed: “with all these vague verbs, these empty promises in the final text, millions more people will find themselves on the front lines of climate change and many of them will die. »

A damning observation shared by Kevin Anderson, who teaches climate change at the University of Manchester. “Physics does not care” concerning the applause of leaders, he provides, believing that the COP28 compromise “sounds the death knell” for the +1.5°C goal.

Humanity solely has between 5 and eight years left, if emissions stay at present ranges, earlier than exceeding the “carbon budget” set to maintain international warming at 1.5°C because the starting of the period. industrial, essentially the most bold goal of the Paris settlement.

An “element of fraudulent language”

And even when emissions start to lower in 2024, we should always abandon all fossil fuels by 2040, factors out Mr. Anderson, and never by 2050, as talked about within the settlement on carbon neutrality, a “ element of fraudulent language” in keeping with him. The much less bold goal of +2°C, with way more severe impacts, is transferring additional and additional away.

Thus, “the inability of COP28 to make significant progress, while the window of opportunity to reduce warming becomes smaller and smaller, is a source of great concern,” believes climatologist Michael Mann.READ ALSO COP28: “The energy transition goes beyond a simple conviction”

But for all that, “We must not put an end to it,” he pleads. “We must continue to organize COPs. They constitute the only multilateral framework for negotiating global climate policies.”

According to Johan Rockstrom, professor of environmental sciences and director of the Potsdam Institute in Germany, the textual content adopted at COP 28 “clearly shows all financial institutions, businesses and societies that it is (… ) the “beginning of the end” of the worldwide financial system based mostly on fossil fuels.”

To go additional, Michael Mann requires a reform of the functioning of the COPs, to permit for instance that choices might be permitted by a big majority of nations, regardless of the objection of fossil gasoline producing nations, and even ban leaders of oil-producing nations like COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber to chair future summits.