“Caren Miosga”: “The Iran strategy of the last few years was extremely naive” | EUROtoday

EA attainable escalation is within the offing. In retaliation for the Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard attacked targets in Israel for the primary time on Sunday night time. The majority of the greater than 300 drones and ballistic missiles have been intercepted, however the query now arises as to Israel's response.

Due to present occasions, Caren Miosga additionally rescheduled her present on Sunday night at brief discover. “Iran is attacking Israel – is the situation in the Middle East escalating?” she requested FDP General Secretary Bijan Djir-Sarai, the German-Iranian journalist Natalie Amiri and the Middle East knowledgeable and Islamic scholar Guido Steinberg.

The first direct assault on Israel was a “breaking of a taboo,” defined Natalie Amiri within the introduction. At the identical time, it matches into Iran's “attrition tactics,” which completely wish to keep away from a “major escalation.” While state tv celebrates the assaults on the Jewish Republic, military and authorities officers downplay them.

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For instance, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian made it clear that he had warned 72 hours upfront, the journalist defined. Mohammed Bagheri, head of the Iranian armed forces, in flip declared the matter closed so long as Israel kept away from reacting.

Guido Steinberg confirmed the Iranian regime's calculation of not eager to trigger any injury with the drone assaults. Rather, the management wished to indicate a “decisive reaction” to the hardliners of the Revolutionary Guard. On the opposite hand, the message to the surface world is that they don't need “a big war”.

“If the Iranians had really wanted to cause damage, they could have sent Hezbollah into Lebanon,” the Islamic scholar identified. But they gave up on that. “This is a signal to the Israelis and the Americans.” Steinberg thought-about Israeli retaliation pointless. “Nothing has happened that would force the Netanyahu government to now directly attack the Iranians.”

“I'm not sure that the Iranians didn't want to cause harm,” replied Bijan Djir-Sarai doubtfully. The Iranian management had an concept of ​​what may occur, however on the similar time they wished to check Israel's “strategic defense capabilities.” From the viewpoint of the FDP normal secretary, that is “a new dimension” in a battle that has to this point been waged not directly by way of pro-Iranian militias corresponding to Hamas.

The present issues are additionally an expression of a “completely failed Iran strategy”. Europe and Germany ignored Iran's missile program and centered on the nuclear settlement, which he himself “even considered a big mistake from a certain point on.” He mentioned: “Iran’s strategy in recent years has been extraordinarily naive.”

“It at least bought time,” replied Steinberg, referring to the Iranian nuclear deal. However, he had no illusions concerning the republic's nuclear program. “I assume that Iran is a nuclear emerging state,” he admitted. Within a couple of weeks, the state would be capable of produce the fissile materials for a weapon.

Hope for the individuals of Iran

“That's not really worrying yet because it takes a while to produce the warheads,” mentioned the Middle East knowledgeable, however after the assaults on Saturday night time, the view of the nuclear program will turn into “somewhat sharper.”

Guido Steinberg additionally took a have a look at the United States, whose significance as a participant within the area is starting to wane. Both Israel and Iran are ignoring warnings from Joe Biden's administration “because they know the US does not want a major conflict.”

From the angle of Riyadh, Tel Aviv and Tehran, the United States really needs to withdraw from the area. “This perception alone changes the position of the Americans and has weakened their position enormously,” assessed the Islamic scholar. It is an indication that “the era of American hegemony in the Middle East” and maybe even “American identity as a superpower” is coming to an finish.

Djir-Sarai lastly countered the discouraging prospects of the spherical of talks with a contact of optimism. “There is an active civil society in Iran,” emphasised the FDP politician. “These are people who want democracy and a life in freedom.” He is “firmly convinced” that the state’s current assaults on Israel will likely be rejected by 90 % of the Iranian inhabitants.

The women-led protests of the previous two years specifically have proven that the system of the Islamic Republic is not going to be “successful in the long term”. Rather, there may be hope that it’s going to fail “very soon”.