On September 26, 2022, the waters of the Baltic Sea witnessed a sabotage of a magnitude not seen since World War II. One of the Nord Stream pipelines, which transported pure fuel immediately from Russia to Western Europe with out passing by Ukrainian territory, was destroyed with explosives in an space of intense maritime site visitors. Since then, varied journalistic revelations have tried to shed gentle – generally with reverse conclusions – on some of the stunning occasions that adopted Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Who blew up the Nord Stream, in accordance with the newest journalistic investigation?
The unique revealed by The Wall Street Journal This Thursday, the US newspaper pointed to Ukraine, saying that its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, initially approved the operation. Then, when the CIA came upon about it and requested to cancel it, it tried to cease it and couldn't. The thought of sabotage arose one night time in May 2022, six months earlier than the explosions, throughout a dinner full of alcohol by which a gaggle of senior Ukrainian army officers and businessmen have been celebrating their nation's success in stopping the Russian invasion, in accordance with the American newspaper.
The plan was executed by a small group of army and civilian divers, financed (at an approximate value of 273,000 euros) by businessmen and supervised by Ukrainian military officers (together with Colonel Roman Chervinsky), in accordance with the testimony of 4 direct sources who participated within the operation or had direct data of it.
What details corroborate this story?
The day earlier than, on Wednesday, three German media shops had revealed the primary main breakthrough within the judicial investigation into the occasions: the German prosecutor's workplace issued an arrest warrant final June in opposition to one of many group members, a Ukrainian citizen who lived in Poland till his latest disappearance; it’s believed that he has fled to Ukraine.
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The identification of the person, knowledgeable diver named Volodymyr Z., has been confirmed, as have these of two different suspects, a Ukrainian couple who run a diving college. Polish authorities have confirmed that they’ve obtained the German request.
What is understood about how the assault was organized?
The German authorities – the one nation nonetheless investigating the occasions after Denmark and Sweden deserted their inquiries earlier this yr – are fully silent, however a number of journalistic investigations have revealed particulars of the investigation.
A group of six individuals with diving abilities was created for the sabotage, together with a lady, who supplied the duvet that they have been a gaggle of pals crusing within the Baltic. They set sail from Rostock, on the northern coast of Germany, on the crusing ship Andromedachartered by a Polish journey company and utilizing solid passports. The investigation has allowed the approximate route and stops to be reconstructed. The boat was returned in a rush and was not completely cleaned, which allowed the German police to search out traces of explosives and DNA samples.
Why did most specialists initially level the finger at Russia?
Firstly, as a result of the assault suits into the so-called hybrid battle that Russia is waging in opposition to the West by sabotage, disinformation and confusion. Due to the depth of the fuel pipeline, which lies on the seabed greater than 70 metres beneath the floor, specialists additionally didn’t imagine that the operation might be carried out with out the help of a state, that’s, with out subtle army means.
Over time, it has been proven that the quantity of explosives wanted was not as excessive as initially thought, and it has been confirmed that civilian divers with expertise in deep water can entry the world. A German media consortium rented a ship and a group of divers and reconstructed the scene for an award-winning documentary (Tatort Ostsee; Crime scene Baltic Sea).
Will it ever be recognized precisely what occurred?
Probably not. The judicial and police investigation may be very restricted. The solely suspect for whom the German prosecutor's workplace has issued an arrest warrant has disappeared and Ukraine shouldn’t be extraditing its nationals. Poland didn’t execute the warrant throughout the 60 days required by European rules. According to sources quoted by German media, “Warsaw seems never to have been really interested in solving the case.”
He South German Times has revealed that the recordings of the port of the Polish metropolis of Kolobrzeg, the place the saboteurs docked with the Andromeda From September 19 to twenty, that they had already been deleted when German investigators requested them.
Is a false flag operation excluded?
No, and there are nonetheless media shops that insist that this idea (an operation carried out with the intention of accusing a 3rd get together of being the writer) remains to be legitimate, though the newest information makes it much less credible.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly denied that he had any data of or authorised the operation. The first indications of alleged Ukrainian authorship have been revealed in March 2023, primarily based on the nationality of the submariners.
What are the implications of the exclusivity for assist to Ukraine?
If it’s confirmed that kyiv ordered the pipeline to be blown up, it may name into query the way forward for European help for Ukraine, each army and monetary. Especially within the case of Germany, because the infrastructure was its personal and it’s the continental associate that contributes essentially the most to the Ukrainian defence effort.
Berlin continues to help Ukraine in opposition to the aggressor energy and insists that nothing has modified. Geert Wilders, the far-right chief whose Party for Freedom (PVV) heads the brand new Dutch authorities, has submitted three inquiries to parliament elevating the potential for reviewing assist to kyiv whether it is confirmed that it was behind the sabotage.
How will it impression the upcoming German regional elections?
The information that Zelensky himself initially approved the operation will undoubtedly be a spotlight of election campaigns within the three areas of the previous East Germany (Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg) that maintain elections in September. The WSJ unique favors the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the left-wing populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, which reject arms deliveries to Ukraine and advocate abandoning sanctions in opposition to Russia. AfD has even referred to as for the reconstruction of Nord Stream and the resumption of Russian fuel imports. AfD leads the polls in all three areas.
Could Nord Stream get again up and operating?
The pipeline, which runs at a depth of round 70 metres, runs alongside a 1,200-kilometre route by the territorial waters of 5 nations: Russia, Finland, Sweden, Denmark and Germany. Nord Stream 1 was inaugurated in 2011 by the then German chancellor, Angela Merkel. Nord Stream 2 was the latest and largest pipeline. Its building was accomplished in 2021 and it had not but come into operation: Berlin halted it simply days earlier than Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. One of the Nord Stream 2 strains – every pipeline consists of two parallel pipes – is unbroken and will theoretically pump fuel once more.
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