Unicredit: Commerzbank could be a “lucky buy” | EUROtoday

In a extra distant a part of the Taunus, behind the “Großer Zacken” and 30 kilometers from Frankfurt metropolis middle, there’s a particular property belonging to Commerzbank. The “Collegium Glashütten” is a four-star convention lodge with 27 seminar rooms and 127 bedrooms, with a swimming pool and sauna, with “culinary diversity” and “comfortable seating areas.”

Not solely bankers, but additionally different teams can ebook right here. The convention bundle, the “heart” of the supply, consists of all facilities. Its identify: “Perfect Day.”

Will the highest administration and supervisory board of Commerzbank have an ideal few days once they collect right here subsequent Tuesday for the annual technique assembly? Since the key Italian financial institution Unicredit purchased 9 p.c of the German financial institution's shares a number of days in the past, the temper has been extra tense than it has been for a very long time.

One participant reported that the official convention program had remained unchanged. But the outlook had modified utterly. Instead of the small print of the goal planning for 2027, the main focus was now on the longer term as an unbiased institute.

In 4 interviews to this point, Unicredit CEO Andrea Orcel has described a takeover as solely an possibility. But he left little question that, in his view, it will make sense.

Neither the financial institution managers nor the politicians in Berlin have taken such a transparent stance to this point. The latter set the occasions in movement by promoting a part of their holdings left over from the monetary disaster.

The Chancellery and the Finance Ministry are at present sounding out what they really need, it was mentioned within the capital on Friday. Then within the night, the finance company by means of which the federal authorities holds Commerzbank shares despatched a transparent sign.

It is not going to promote any extra shares “until further notice”. Commerzbank's technique is geared in the direction of independence, and the federal authorities needs to assist this by sustaining its stake of twelve p.c.

Commerzbank CFO Bettina Orlopp made this plea on Wednesday on the sidelines of an occasion in Berlin. The former McKinsey advisor is more likely to play a central position within the upcoming talks with Unicredit managers – presumably even in a brand new position.

Almost concurrently the Italians joined the corporate, Commerzbank CEO Manfred Knof introduced his departure; his contract, which expires on the finish of 2025, is not going to be renewed. On the way in which to this resolution, Knof irritated vital decision-makers with contradictory statements and calls for; the remorse over his departure is manageable.

Commerzbank CEO Knof has already introduced his exit

Although an early substitute is on no account deliberate, it’s more and more unlikely that the previous Allianz supervisor will keep till the tip of his time period.

The seek for a successor will speed up, based on folks near the supervisory board. Since the ranks of attainable exterior candidates are more likely to skinny out as a result of financial institution's unsure future, the method will in all probability finish with Orlopp, who’s already favored. She will then must convincingly show that Commerzbank is viable by itself.

The institute owes its file ends in the latest previous primarily to the rise in rates of interest. After this “special economic boom” ends, it’s more likely to fall again into previous patterns; in the long term, it is just too small, say skeptics.

Unicredit boss Orcel has gleefully revealed in his interviews that the competitors is outperforming the Frankfurt-based financial institution in key figures. Florian Toncar (FDP), the State Secretary accountable within the Ministry of Finance, praised the sale of the shares from the federal authorities as a “sign of the strength of the bank and of Germany as a financial center.”

Now the transaction threatens to show precisely the alternative. If Commerzbank finally ends up as Unicredit's German department, solely one of many unique 5 banks within the DAX would stay and a gaping gap would open up in Frankfurt, the self-proclaimed European monetary capital.

In addition to the European Central Bank, two different EU authorities, the continental headquarters of a number of overseas banks and various bigger state- or cooperative-owned establishments could be positioned right here.

With Deutsche Bank, just one main non-public financial institution would have its house on the Main. “We expect the federal government to focus its activities on strengthening Frankfurt as a financial center,” Hesse's Finance Minister Alexander Lorz (CDU) instructed WELT AM SONNTAG. The state authorities is following occasions intently and is in touch with the federal authorities and different gamers.

One cause for the continuing weak point of German banks is the unusually sturdy fragmentation of the market. Because of this, financial institution boss Orcel is definitely not a fan of the German market, say Unicredit insiders.

Nevertheless, his transfer is constant. Orcel is below stress from the supervisory board as a result of he has repeatedly steered main offers, though he has not declared them as an finish in themselves.

In precept, Commerzbank is an appropriate goal, says an funding banker not concerned within the transaction. The overlap within the company buyer enterprise is manageable, and with the Polish Commerzbank subsidiary mBank, Unicredit can shut a niche within the in any other case dense Eastern European community.

And there may be additionally loads of potential for financial savings. In addition to cuts at headquarters, the Italians might shut Commerzbank's overseas branches.

Cultural variations between the 2 banks

However, these acquainted with each banks level to what they see as vital obstacles to merging. Contrary to what Orcel claims, Unicredit is managed in a strictly centralized method, and the branches within the nations solely have decision-making energy in gross sales, says an insider.

In the company banking enterprise, for instance, the German subsidiary HypoVereinsbank is aggressive, however the vital merchandise come from the Milan headquarters, the place the knowledge know-how essential for the banking enterprise can be utterly positioned.

The strict regime will inevitably result in “cultural differences,” says an insider. Unicredit insiders additionally doubt that Orcel is definitely involved in increasing actions in Germany.

They imagine that he is perhaps extra involved in Commerzbank's fairness capital. This at present quantities to virtually 31 billion euros, however Commerzbank is barely value 18.5 billion euros on the inventory market.

The discrepancy wouldn’t solely allow Orcel to make excessive valuation beneficial properties. Over time, he might additionally withdraw among the capital from Germany and use it extra profitably in different nations, says a high-ranking financial institution supervisor. Commerzbank is due to this fact a fortunate purchase for Orcel. Possibly even an ideal day.

Cornelius Welp is a enterprise correspondent in Frankfurt. From there he stories on Banks, Insurance and Financial buyers and firms.

Jan Dams is head of the enterprise and finance division of WELT and WELT am Sonntag.