the surprising proposals of Nicolas Baverez in his essay “Sursaut” | EUROtoday

Dn his final essay, “Sursaut”, the editorialist of Point, Nicolas Baverez establishes an statement that’s directly documented, implacable and lucid on the state of France which, in response to him, has reached the breaking level underneath Emmanuel Macron.

He additionally took the chance to launch avenues of reform that might lastly flip the tide. Selected items.

The story stutters

“The reflections and warnings against the decline of France are in no way confused with the extreme right, as is often put forward or insinuated. They arise from the very turbulent historical destiny of France, which alternates between phases of stalling or collapse, as during the defeats of 1815 against the coalition of European monarchies, of 1870 against Prussia, or of 1940 against the Nazi Germany, and periods of brilliant recovery, during the Second Empire, the Belle Époque, the Roaring Twenties, or the Thirty Glorious Years. Each of the periods of subsidence saw the rise of great voices, from Chateaubriand to Georges Bernanos via Barbey d’Aurevilly or Léon Bloy, to call for the reconstruction of France and the renewal of the thread of its destiny. »

Beware of the “baby crash”

“The consequences of the turnaround in our demographics remain underestimated. The population will increase slightly to reach 69.3 million inhabitants in 2044, before declining to settle at 68.1 million in 2070. But its aging is suddenly accelerating: the proportion of over 65s will exceed 30 % from 2030. Potential growth will be annihilated, since the active population will stagnate between 30.1 and 30.5 million people while labor productivity declines. Aging will cause an increase of more than 5% in social spending linked to retirement, health and dependency. The only source of population growth and reinforcement of assets will therefore be to be found in immigration, but it includes few qualified workers and it comes up against the failure of integration which fuels the growing resistance of the French – in a country where immigrants and their descendants already represent 21.4% of the population. With the fall in its demographics, France is losing one of its last assets. »

Fewer civil servants

“The status of civil servant should be reserved solely for the sovereign functions of the State – internal security, justice, diplomacy and armies –, and the contract generalized in other sectors of public action as in other European countries (98% in Sweden and the Netherlands, 85% in Italy, 78% in Denmark, 64% in Belgium and 62% in Spain compared to 21% in France). Furthermore, the State will only be able to fulfill its missions if it has the necessary skills and talents. This requires linking a return to excellence – particularly in the senior civil service where merit has been neglected in favor of co-optation –, strengthening the attractiveness of remuneration and career paths, gigantic training efforts, uncompromising protection of agents against violence, ten-year plan to reduce excess staffing which is estimated at 256,000 positions in the State and 255,000 positions in local authorities. »

Get to work!

“The observation that France is losing ground and the risk of our country collapsing are now understood and shared by the French as well as by foreign leaders and by the markets. […]. Denied by the leaders, the decline is increasingly felt, understood and painfully experienced by the French. In the absence of a political solution, they have fallen into fear of the future, into anger and into the temptation of extremism. But their mobilization at the last minute during the second round of the 2024 legislative elections shows that they are not yet resigned to handing over power, for the first time in their history, to the far right following regular elections. […] Light can also emerge from darkness. And the French are sufficiently disgusted with lies to agree to consider the truth and to mobilize their energy in the service of reconstruction. […] France of the 21st^e century needs to be rebuilt. And first as a power. It is our duty as French people. This must become our priority and our obsession. Get to work! »

“Sursaut”, by Nicolas Baverez (L’Observatoire, 192 p., €20). In bookstores October 23.