From our correspondent
NEW DELHI – The political earthquake that introduced Donald Trump again to the White House is destined to generate spectacular waves. And – if the electoral guarantees are stored – the waves that cross the Pacific Ocean may rework right into a tsunami launched at nice velocity in direction of the Asian coasts. China should take care of it in the beginning. But, by advantage of the financial and political weight of the contenders, the whole Indo-Pacific can be confronted with decisions that would upset the financial and strategic balances of a few of the essential drivers of world progress.
The Chinese goal
The place to begin is inevitably duties. During the election marketing campaign, Trump promised 60% tariffs on Chinese shopper items. If it stored its phrase, Beijing – with its 500 billion {dollars} in exports to the United States, 15% of the full – would discover itself confronted with a posh problem to say the least. To perceive how a lot, simply make a comparability with what occurred in 2018-19, when the Republican chief’s protectionist agenda took the type of tariffs ranging between 7.5% and 25% on 370 billion {dollars} of products made in China. This time, along with greater than double tariffs, what would make the distinction can be the situations of the Chinese economic system, that are now not these of 2018.
At the time, 1 / 4 of Beijing’s GDP revolved round actual property. Today, actual property is in deep ache and will be unable to assist China take in the influence of a brand new commerce conflict. Not solely that. The actual property disaster has burdened native administrations with money owed destined to enormously scale back the fiscal arsenal that may be deployed to cushion exterior shocks. An image made much more unsure by different components: home demand that is still weak, with household consumption beneath 40% of GDP, round 20 factors lower than the world common; deflationary pressures which might be aggravated by a contraction in overseas demand; restricted room for maneuver to depreciate the yuan by that 18% which, in accordance with some estimates, would make it doable to offset 60% of duties in direction of the United States.
The doable solutions
«China – explains Alicia Garcia Herrero, Asia Pacific chief economist at Natixis – in truth can’t reply» to customs tariffs of this magnitude. «What he can do – he continues – is announce new stimuli to the economic system, in order that the markets don’t penalize it». But additionally to attempt to combat again. For instance, by imposing tariffs on the agri-food sector (due to sturdy commerce relations with Brazil), penalizing American firms with sturdy Chinese pursuits and introducing limits on the export of essential uncooked supplies. It already occurred final yr with gallium and germanium, two metals used within the protection, communications and semiconductor sectors.
https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/trump-e-l-asia-quali-saranno-rapporti-lo-scomodo-gigante-cinese-AGAI3cx