BRUSSELS – Publishing its autumn forecasts, the European Commission warned that dangers to the way forward for the financial system have elevated in current months. Among the explanations for this alarm, Brussels cites the profound transformations within the industrial sector; the continuing warfare in Ukraine; the hazard of protectionist insurance policies on the American entrance after the re-election of Donald Trump; environmental catastrophes; and, lastly, delays within the implementation of nationwide restoration and resilience plans.
European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis defined in a press release: “We must address long-term structural challenges, increase productivity and ensure that the European Union’s economy remains globally competitive.” Added Economic Affairs Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni: “Member States will have to follow a narrow path to reduce debt levels, while supporting growth.”
The figures
As for the figures revealed in the present day, Friday 15 November, the neighborhood estimates roughly verify the market forecasts. Growth within the eurozone is predicted to be 0.8% in 2024, rising to 1.3% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. European Commission notes elevated funding and consumption on the again of a decline in inflation. The annual value enhance will go from 5.4% in 2023 to 2.4% in 2024, to additional decline to 2.1% in 2025.
However, as talked about, the scenario is fragile. Uncertainty and damaging dangers to the financial outlook have elevated. «Russia’s extended warfare of aggression in opposition to Ukraine and the escalating battle within the Middle East gasoline geopolitical dangers and vitality safety dangers. An additional enhance in protectionist measures by buying and selling companions may disrupt world commerce.” The reference is to Donald Trump’s future choices.
The Union’s challenges on the internal front
On the domestic front, the Commission specifies, “political uncertainty and structural challenges within the manufacturing sector may result in additional losses in competitiveness and weigh on development and the job market”. The gaze turns to the scenario of the automotive business in addition to the disaster within the metal business. “Furthermore, delays in the implementation of national recovery and resilience plans could further constrain the recovery in growth.” An acceleration of spending is predicted in Italy in 2025.
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