Did Emmanuel Macron dissolve overseas investments similtaneously the Assembly? | EUROtoday

Tthree weeks earlier than dissolving the National Assembly abruptly, Emmanuel Macron was nonetheless happy, in the course of the Choose France summit, that France was “the most attractive country in Europe” for overseas investments. His dangerous poker transfer on June 9 could have modified the whole lot.

According to a research printed by the agency EY, which surveyed in October the intentions of 200 managers of corporations with overseas capital, one in two believes that the attractiveness of France has “deteriorated over the last six months” . First causes given: “political uncertainty arising from the dissolution of the National Assembly” (61%), “uncertainty relating to corporate taxation in France” (42%), and “the deterioration of public finances in France” (37%).

Consequence: one in two (49%) determined to scale back their deliberate investments in France in 2024, after the dissolution of the National Assembly. 59% of those that press the brake point out “regulatory and legislative uncertainty”, 47% “the slowing down of the reform agenda”, and 40% “the questioning of public decisions previously taken, in particular in the key sectors”.

“Despite love”

For Marc Lhermitte, EY associate, the dissolution of the National Assembly marks, for overseas corporations, the tip of a “long period where the course was set and constantly maintained, with what some have called a policy of ‘offers, in any case, a real pro-business policy which has re-established confidence’.

We are not yet in a massive flight of investments. But in a sort of “loving spite”, estimates the professional, accountable globally for EY for recommendation on “competitiveness and attractiveness”. “The leaders are not abandoning France. But they take the new situation into account. They find it a little more uncomfortable, they are a little disappointed. »

Who will benefit from this air gap, if it were to be confirmed? EY believes that “the United Kingdom could be the first beneficiary of this French outage, in a context where Europe is threatened by American protectionism and Chinese ambitions”. 42% of the managers surveyed imagine that “the United Kingdom has become more attractive over the past six months compared to France”, in comparison with 29% who assume the other.

ALSO READ “It’s rocking very hard”: Macron, the unusual finish of his reign Will the dissolution have, for France, the identical impact as Brexit on the United Kingdom? Since 2017, the variety of overseas direct investments has fallen by 18% throughout the Channel. “It is still too early to say whether there will be a shift in favor of the United Kingdom,” feedback Marc Lhermitte.

“It is a country which still has a very big issue on inflation, or on the quality of public services. But it has advantages for American companies, with a super flexible labor market that resembles what they find at home. » Main advantage compared to the current situation in France: “The rules of the game are clear. » Germany, for its part, is evaluated even more negatively than France by foreign investors. But “challenger countries, like Spain, Italy or the Netherlands, where the rules of the game are clear, could pull the chestnuts out of the fire”.

“First expectation: taxation”

What may completely persuade these buyers to proceed to decide on France? “Their first expectation is that of taxation,” estimates Marc Lhermitte. “If we asked them to contribute, in an exceptional manner, to the public deficit and the repayment of the debt, this contribution would have to be measured in time and in its magnitude. » They want to pay well, but expect “give and take”, with “optimization of public spending” and “simplification of their daily lives”.

Second expectation from them: “They want more Europe. » “The Draghi report has helped to set minds on a real European course, which resembles what leaders have been “buying” in France for a number of years. » They would additionally like “a clearer deployment of decarbonization and ecological transition”.

ALSO READ Reindustrialization: why France is slipping
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Kangaroo of the day

Answer

Asked concerning the destiny of investments not made in 2024, 84% of managers replied that they’re postponed till 2025, not less than. More than 60% plan to develop analysis and growth or service actions in France by 2027, however solely 49% plan to arrange or broaden factories inside three years.

And barely 15% plan to develop decision-making facilities in France. The subsequent EY barometer will say, initially of 2025, whether or not the overseas funding curve has reversed in France, or not, this 12 months. And in that case, which nations may have benefited from it.