Will there be a funds at Christmas? The speculation of a movement of censure which might deliver down the Barnier authorities within the coming weeks and go away France with out a funds for 2025 is beginning to be taken very significantly.
Witness the fun on Monday on the monetary markets. International traders stay there, and the Treasury raised 8.3 billion euros with out drama within the afternoon. But, confronted with political turbulence, banks are actually demanding increased rates of interest for lending cash to the French state. The hole between the charges requested from France and Germany for a ten-year mortgage rose in the course of the session to 0.83%, its highest degree since mid-June. It was solely 0.5% earlier than the dissolution of the National Assembly. France should now pay greater than Portugal or Spain to acquire funds, and is approaching the extent imposed on Greece and Italy.
“We are taking the risk of a Greek scenario”warned authorities spokesperson Maud Bregeon on Sunday, November 24 in The Parisian, by highlighting the danger of a monetary disaster, as in Greece within the early 2010s. The result’s one query: “Who wants to give the French as a Christmas present for 2025 a deficit of more than 7% and interest rates that are soaring? »
“A leap into the unknown”
You should not give in “to the little music consisting of saying: “If this budget is ever refused, if there is censorship, it will be dramatic, it will be chaos, etc.” “, replied Marine Le Pen on Monday, leaving her meeting with Michel Barnier in Matignon. A way to clear the ground before possible censorship of the executive by the left and the National Rally (RN). A strong supporter of the motion of censure, Eric Coquerel also wants to be reassuring: even if no budget is adopted, there will be no “no shutdown, no chaos, no disaster”, affirms the president (La France insoumise, LFI) of the finance committee at the Assembly, in a video broadcast on Sunday.
Chaos or not chaos? The outcome will depend in part on the timing of possible censorship. Between now and Christmas, Michel Barnier’s opponents will in principle have several opportunities to bring down his government. Three budgetary texts, currently being examined in the Senate, will in fact then return to the Assembly, where the government will undoubtedly try to have them adopted by calling into question its existence within the framework of article 49.3 of the Constitution. First the Social Security budget for 2025, on December 4. Then the end of management bill of 2024, two days later. The general budget for 2025, finally, around December 20.
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