What will develop into of the Russian army bases of Tartous and Hmeimim in Syria? | EUROtoday

LCould Russia lose greater than an ally with the autumn of Bashar al-Assad? While the dictator and his household have reportedly discovered political asylum in Moscow, the destiny of the 2 Russian army bases in Syria is up within the air. Will the Islamist fighters of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTC) and their chief, Abu Mohammed al-Joulani, nonetheless settle for the presence of Russian troopers who largely contributed to placing down the rebel from 2015, specifically by bombing civilians? Nothing is much less sure.

According to Ukrainian army intelligence (GUR), Russia evacuated its ships from the Tartus naval base, together with the frigate Admiral Grigorovich of the Black Sea Fleet and the cargo ship Engineer Trubin of the Northern Fleet. Built fifty years in the past on this coastal area within the northwest of the nation, the Tartous base is the biggest Russian army affect outdoors its territory after that of Sevastopol.

It permits the Russian navy to be current within the Mediterranean, by providing its ships the opportunity of refueling and finishing up repairs. It is near the Suez Canal, a significant maritime artery by which 10% of world commerce passes. In 2017, an settlement with the Syrian authorities was signed, renewing the Russian presence in Tartous for 49 years. The bay has been modernized for the reason that Seventies and will accommodate round ten ships in whole. “The base of Tartous is a means of claiming oneself as a great power”, underlined an article in ThereNational Defense Magazine in 2022.

What alternate options for the Russian navy after the possible lack of the Tartous base?

With the possible lack of Tartous, “any deployment of Russian ships in the Mediterranean will become more complex, because it will cause increased wear and tear on the buildings,” stated Benjamin Gravisse, a specialist in Russian forces. Ships from the Northern Fleet and the Pacific Fleet will be capable to move by the Strait of Gibraltar and the Suez Canal respectively to entry the Mediterranean. But with the closure of the Dardanelles Strait to army ships since 2022, repairs and refits won’t be able to be carried out in Sevastopol and Novorossiysk, within the Black Sea.

However, some alternate options exist for Russian ships. Algeria first, the place they’re already often welcomed. Negotiations are additionally underway between Russia and Sudan for the creation of a naval base at Port Sudan, a strategic location on the Red Sea close to the Suez Canal. But the civil struggle which is ravaging the nation makes this answer very hypothetical for the second.

The final possibility could be the Libyan port of Tobruk, managed by Marshal Haftar, supported by personal army corporations despatched by Moscow. But right here once more, a civil struggle makes any long-term undertaking unsure.

Hmeimim base, Russian logistics hub in Syria

A real logistics hub positioned within the Latakia area, 100 km north of Tartous, the Hmeimim air base is an virtually compulsory stopover for wide-body plane which transport Russian tools and paramilitary forces to Africa.

It is defended by S-400 and Pantsir anti-aircraft techniques. Its forty plane, Su-34 bombers, Su-24 floor assault plane, and Mi-24 assault helicopters contributed considerably in 2016 to the recapture of Aleppo by the Syrian regime. However, its assets could have been decreased and transferred to the Ukrainian theater. Russian planes have carried out few bombing missions in 2024 in opposition to Syrian insurgent forces.

It is from Hmeimim that Russian forces evacuate their weapons and army tools from Syria by army aircraft, Ukrainian intelligence claims. This data seems to be confirmed by satellite tv for pc photos collected on December 7, exhibiting three Il-76 army transport planes and an An-124 on the air base. “The loss of Syria as a transshipment base could be a serious blow not only to our positions in the Middle East, but also in Africa,” alarmed pro-Russian blogger Rybar on Telegram. “Cargo planes can solely fly from Russia to Libya with out refueling if they’re empty. »

“It is premature to talk about maintaining Russian bases in Hmeimim and Tartous; this is a topic for discussion with those who will rule Syria,” stated Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, Tass reported on Monday, December 9. Moscow has in any case radically modified its discourse concerning the Syrian opposition, shifting from “terrorist groups” to “opposition groups” in just a few days. According to the channel CNN Turkan settlement would have been made between Russia and Turkey to evacuate Russian troopers current in round ten different positions in Syria.