Reform UK seems set to win a Labour stronghold in London on the subsequent common election in what can be a serious blow to Sir Keir Starmer, polling reveals.
Modelling generated by Nowcast reveals Nigel Farage’s Reform UK beating Labour in Dagenham and Rainham, the place Sir Keir’s occasion has been elected for years.
The mannequin places Reform on a 3.1% majority with 34.4% of the vote in comparison with 31.3% for Labour and the Conservatives trailing on 18.1%.
Nowcast’s outcomes additionally present the neighbouring constituency, Hornchurch and Upminster, tilting in direction of Reform UK, with a 1.8% majority and 36.2% of the vote.
Mr Farage’s populist occasion is aiming to upset British politics, with Ladbrokes this week placing him at 5/2 favorite to succeed Sir Keir at No.10, forward of Conservative chief, Kemi Badenoch.
Reform UK has just lately seen some high Tory defections, with Conservative Home founder Tim Montgomerie and billionaire property tycoon, Nick Candy, switching help.
Aggregate polling reveals Reform UK would narrowly beat the Conservatives into second place on 34.5% of the vote and oust the incumbent MP for Hornchurch and Upminster, Julia Lopez.
Nick Palmer was Reform UK’s candidate on the common election in July when he gained 13,317 votes in comparison with Ms Lopez’s 15,260. He advised Express.co.uk: “The Tories have lost touch with the backbone of Britain. They’ve wasted the past 14 years moving more and more to the left, picking policies that are more suited to be Liberal Democrat.
“The exhausting working individuals of Hornchurch and Upminster are fed up with not being listened to and never getting a good deal.”
Ms Lopez saw her share of the vote crash from 65.8% at the 2019 general election, to 32.5% in 2024, with figures suggesting Reform UK took a sizeable chunk of the vote from the Tories.
Labour held on to Dagenham and Rainham in July, with 42.6% of the vote compared with Reform UK which secured 24.2% and beat the Tories into third place on 17.8%.
Well known as the home of Ford’s Dagenham car plant, the town was also a location for French pharma giant, Sanofi-Aventis, and battery maker Ever Ready. Much of the Becontree Estate, once Europe’s largest public housing project, lies in Dagenham.
While Dagenham and Rainham has been held by Labour since the seat was formed in 2010, Sir Keir’s party saw its lowest ever majority in Dagenham in 2019 when Conservative candidate Damian White was narrowly beaten by Jon Cruddas during an election led by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson and dominated by Brexit.
Dagenham forms part of the London Borough of Barking and Dagenham, which voted 62.4% in favour of Brexit in 2016. Upminster and Hornchurch fall under the London Borough of Havering where 69.7% voted for Britain to exit the European Union.
Reform UK insiders are said to be quietly rejoicing at the Nowcast forecast, with one telling GB News it presents a “large” alternative to realign the centre-right in British politics.
The similar forecast reveals Reform gaining numerous different seats, together with Folkestone and Hythe, Chatham and Aylesford, Sittingbourne and Sheppey, South West Norfolk and Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North.
In all, the rebel group seems set to win some 30 seats, together with the 5 it claimed in July.
National polling places Labour and the Tories at about 26% every with Reform at round 14% come the subsequent election. Were Mr Farage to develop into the subsequent prime minister, analysts say it might seemingly be a results of a hung parliament.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1988469/reform-general-election-beat-labour-poll