A European Council of reflection and never of determination | EUROtoday

Lhe disaster in Mayotte is shaking up Emmanuel Macron’s European agenda. The French president, anticipated on the EU-Balkans summit, should shorten his presence in Brussels. In an association supplied for within the Treaty of Aix-la-Chapelle, it’s the German Chancellor who will carry France’s voice on the European Council. It’s not the primary time. In December 2022, the French president “skipped” the EU-ASEAN summit to go to the France-Morocco match in the course of the World Cup in Qatar. Conversely, Emmanuel Macron has additionally already carried the German voice in the course of the latest summit between the EU and the Gulf international locations.

Before his hasty departure, the French president nonetheless had time to see his counterparts in the course of the EU-Balkans summit and he coordinated with the German chancellor by phone to convey the French voice to Ukraine, the Middle East. Orient and the controversy on the place of “Europe in the world”.

Support for Ukraine stays the precedence

This shouldn’t be a decision-making summit however discussions between leaders, with the presence of Volodymyr Zelensky. And it’s undoubtedly significantly better this manner given the circumstances: a Trump presidency of which Europe does probably not know the diploma of hostility, an unsure Syrian state of affairs with the primary diplomatic contacts established… “There is no point in anticipate the future decisions of the Trump administration or to push kyiv towards concessions,” European diplomats have repeated over and over since the beginning of the week. The only thing that matters is to prepare Ukraine to hold out over the long term.

However, Mark Rutte, the Secretary General of NATO, made a point of inviting some European leaders on the evening of Wednesday December 18, at the end of the Balkans summit. Only the “large states” (France, Germany, Netherlands, Poland, etc.) are invited to this meeting with a “confidential” agenda. The French president will be represented by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Jean-Noël Barrot. France has not much appreciated the messages from Mark Rutte in recent weeks for whom it is important to “buy American weapons” so as not to annoy Donald Trump more… This is not really the idea that Paris has. of European strategic autonomy.

ALSO READ European defense: how Berlin abandoned Paris for WashingtonA new set of sanctions, the fifteenth, has just been adopted by the Council and particularly targets “ghost fleets” which allow Russia to circumvent restrictions on oil. Financial aid is being structured to enable Ukraine to survive throughout 2025. For the rest, we will see… The facility for Ukraine of 50 billion euros is being put in place, supplemented by a G7 loan of 50 billion dollars, including 20 billion for the European part. So, even if the Americans defect, the Ukrainians can count on 30 billion euros next year with a military component. In total, European support – Union and Member States combined – has reached 130 billion euros since the start of the conflict. A figure which gives the measure of European commitment, but also of the concern in the face of a possible Russian victory.

The Costa method garners praise

The timing is crucial: Russian attacks are intensifying, as before any ceasefire negotiations. “In recent days, we have seen more than 300 projectiles and missiles fired throughout Ukraine,” recalls an Elysee source. It’s terrible but it’s also a sign that Putin knows the negotiation is coming. He therefore intends to place himself in the best possible situation.

This council is the baptism of fire for the new president of the European Council. Antonio Costa, who took office on 1^er December, inaugurates a new working method. The conclusions are “roughly stabilized” even before the start of the summit, a first which could facilitate debates on sensitive issues. “The new President of the European Council is shaking up Brussels habits,” the Poles say enthusiastically. No more large group video conferences: Antonio Costa favors direct contact, increasing the number of bilateral phone calls. A method reminiscent of the heyday of Europe, when leaders spent more time discussing than writing. »

Migration: Commission expected on returns

The conclusions are “short and punchy”. “It wasn’t difficult to do better than Charles Michel,” quips a diplomat. The 27 thus spare themselves a long nighttime marathon of writing on the significance of this or that adjective. Leaders will have more time to talk about substance. And the summits – this is Costa’s objective in any case – could thus be reduced to a single day (Thursday).

On migration, President von der Leyen sent her traditional letter in advance to take stock of the situation. The European Commission is preparing a new directive on returns, expected in early 2025 (probably in March). Paris is showing “warning” here on the “progressive options” mentioned by Ursula von der Leyen, in particular return centers outside the EU (like the Italian centers in Albania). The Élysée favors “effectiveness issues” – namely the monumental implementation of the migration pact – rather than hazardous and costly experiments that the justice system has not validated. “The real deterrent is increasing effective returns to the country and not detaining people – for how long? – in intermediate centers,” it is estimated in Paris.

A debate on Europe in the world

However, as in October, eleven leaders (including the Italian Meloni, the Hungarian Orban, the Dutch Schoof, the Dane Fredricksen, etc.) will meet for breakfast just before the opening of the summit to discuss this subject which is important to them. heart. “We must use all the levers of the EU,” explains one of the participants, evoking trade preferences and visa facilitations.

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Antonio Costa additionally needed this Council to take up main strategic points on Europe’s place on this planet. Relations with China, transatlantic partnership, quick neighborhood: European leaders wish to regain management of those main tips, leaving the technical particulars to their administrations. But will they ask themselves the query of “values”? Will the EU cease giving classes in democracy to the whole planet and attempt to cohabit, with out judgment, with different civilizations against the West? Will she break with the concept of ​​wanting everybody to stick to “universal values” that she is more and more alone in defending?

It can even be a query of discussing the latest report by Sauli Niinistö, the previous Finnish president, on preparation for crises (well being, climate, wars, and so on.). According to this report, commissioned by the European Commission, every European family ought to have the ability to preserve autonomy for 72 hours within the occasion of a significant disaster. Food, water, medicines… But it additionally evokes extra navy points. Which makes the hyperlink with the unhappy information in Mayotte: the conclusions of the European Council additionally embrace a message of “condolences and solidarity” in the direction of the individuals of Mahor. The European civil safety mechanism was activated by France, a primary step earlier than different potential “European support”.