FRiedrich Merz, the subsequent German Chancellor, stated it bluntly within the very night of his electoral victory, Sunday, February 23: his “Absolute priority” will likely be to strengthen Europe as shortly as potential to be able to construct “A real independence from the United States”.
It is a Copernican revolution as a result of the Germans, like many different Europeans, had up to now designed their safety as a part of the Atlantic Alliance (NATO), largely beneath American supervision. Mr. Merz additionally added that he had by no means considered being expressed as he did. The overtly hostile angle of the Trump administration has brutally accelerated discussions on strategic autonomy advocated since 2017 by Emmanuel Macron.
Four questions come up: that of the magnitude and rhythm of the protection effort; that of its effectiveness; that of the international locations that can take part; and eventually that of its funding.
End of fragmentations
For ten years, the protection bills of European members of NATO, which had continued repeatedly for the reason that finish of the Cold War, have gone as much as attain 2 % of the gross home product (GDP) in 2024. It continues to be too little in view of the magnitude of the Russian menace, and particularly the chance of withdrawal from the United States.
Emmanuel Macron and Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the fee, lately spoke of three % to three.5 % of GDP. The effort to be supplied is due to this fact 200 billion to 300 billion euros per yr. It is on this order of magnitude (250 billion euros) that the Bruegel reflection circle additionally takes away in a latest evaluation of quick -term wants.
To be efficient, nevertheless, this expenditure must finish the fragmentation of the European protection trade, which prohibits it from benefiting from the consequences of scale and ends in huge extra prices. Estimates, which differ in accordance with sources, exceeds 50 % in accordance with sure specialists (the Enrico Letta report, introduced in April 2024, cites the determine of 100 billion euros per yr). Increasing the quantity of investments in protection with out coping with this downside would solely improve these extra prices. It is due to this fact essential to arrange an industrial coverage for protection on the similar time. Whatever its strategies, it’ll suggest consolidation on a European scale, which permits remaining producers to learn full yields of scale.
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