LAt first response to the Donald Trump commerce struggle was voted on the European Council. This Wednesday, April 9, greater than 300 American merchandise shall be assigned to further customs duties: 25 % for essentially the most half, 10 % for some. The Council has adopted a graduated response technique: the 2018 checklist (following the primary Trump struggle) shall be reactivated on April 15. We should undoubtedly anticipate a vigorous response from the American president within the coming hours.
First data: Bourbon is just not within the checklist! The exclusion of American alcohols, bourbon in thoughts, from the checklist of focused merchandise constitutes a major turning level in comparison with 2018. This concession, obtained on the initiative of France, illustrates the European fears of a focused climbing in delicate sectors.
The equation is straightforward: Paris protects its champagnes and cognacs by sparing Kentucky whiskeys. It was subsequently with reduction that Paris was capable of be part of her voice to all of the Member States which voted in favor of those reprisals. Italy of Giorgia Meloni silenced his doubts and in addition voted for this graduated response. Only Hungary of Viktor Orban voted in opposition to.
An increase in European reprisals
The plan designed by the Commission supplies for a gradual rise in European stress. One month after this primary volley of economic sanctions, a second checklist will come into pressure on May 15, far more substantial with 13.5 billion euros in further rights. A legally calibrated arsenal to scrupulously respect the WTO guidelines.
Read too Europe within the vagueness within the face of the unpredictable TrumpThe merchandise focused by the European response are divided into 4 strategic appendices, distinguished by charges of 25 % and 10 % relying on their sensitivity. Annex I corresponds to the 2018 checklist and goal of American symbolic items: agricultural merchandise akin to corn and rice (25 %), emblematic textiles akin to denims (25 %), sneakers (25 %), ceramic home goods (25 %), steel merchandise together with metal and aluminum (25 %), family home equipment (25 %), bikes together with the Harley Davidson (25 %) pleasure boats (25 %), furnishings (25 %), but in addition beauty merchandise (10 %) and enjoying playing cards (10 %).
Minerals and agricultural merchandise struck
Annex II is concentrated completely on metallurgy with further rights of 25 % on copper ores, railroad rails, metal tubes and pipes, steel constructions, aluminum merchandise and cutlery.
As for annexes III and IV, they full this technique with further rights uniformly set at 25 %. Annex III covers a large spectrum together with animal merchandise (beef meats, poultry), fruit and veggies (tomatoes, citrus), espresso and tea, cereals, oils, meals preparations, magnificence merchandise, plastic gadgets, leather-based, wooden, and textiles. Annex IV, extra focused, solely targets almonds and soybeans.
Meloni lastly performs the European card
This value structure shall be regularly deployed: first checklist from April 15 (3.9 billion euros in further customs duties), second checklist on May 15 (13.5 billion euros), and if needed, a 3rd checklist on December 1 (3.5 billion euros). “Each step cleaning a outing for Washington, but we are ready to go to the end if necessary,” we confide within the corridors of the council.
The Commission needed to perform delicate arbitrations to protect European unity. Each Member State has argued its crimson strains, fearing focused reprisals on its flagship exports. The rallying of Giorgia Meloni’s Italy, initially reluctant, testifies to the readjustments made behind the scenes. Rome, which maintains ambivalent relations with the Trump administration, has obtained ensures in sure delicate sectors earlier than giving its approval. Conversely, Hungary persists in its pro-American posture, Viktor Orbán persevering with to domesticate his privileged relationship with Donald Trump.
Trump’s opaque logic
This European response is a part of a context of unprecedented American value offensive: three successive layers of customs duties (25 % on metal and aluminum, an extra 25 % on automobiles, 20 % so -called “reciprocal” rights) threatening almost 380 billion euros in European exports.
Faced with this protectionist deluge, European determination -makers are nonetheless struggling to determine the actual intentions of Donald Trump. Its justifications oscillate between protection of nationwide safety, discount of the commerce deficit and reindustrialisation of the United States, when it doesn’t merely annoy European VAT.
To uncover
The kangaroo of the day
Answer
“The American president deliberately maintains the vagueness with his ultimate objectives,” analyzes an professional in worldwide commerce. “This uncertainty is part of its negotiation strategy, but considerably complicates our ability to define an adapted response.”
Markets as a referees
Brussels carefully screens American monetary market reactions to this tariff climbing. The first inventory market jets at Wall Street, particularly within the sectors depending on European imports, may represent an efficient stress lever. In the meantime, Europe is working to strengthen its financial resilience by deepening its community of commerce agreements with 76 nations and finishing its single market.
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