Sir Keir Starmer has been warned that saying U-turns on controversial insurance policies is probably not sufficient to show round his dwindling approval rankings or win again misplaced voters.
Polling consultants say final week’s climbdown on winter gas fee cuts – in addition to a possible reversal on the Tories’ two-child profit cap – run the danger of creating him look “insecure” and will set off but extra speak of a management problem.
The warning comes because the prime minister scrambles to win over voters who’ve turned their again on Labour for the reason that celebration’s historic common election victory 10 months in the past. The PM can be dealing with a rise up from his personal MPs over controversial welfare cuts and a rising unease over the path of the celebration.
Polling guru Sir John Curtice warned that any coverage reversals – even when deemed well-liked by MPs and the general public – is probably not sufficient to assuage considerations over his management, including that “doubts have crept in” for Labour MPs over whether or not Sir Keir is the proper individual to guide the celebration to victory in 2029.
Referring to the current U-turn on winter gas fee cuts, he advised The Independent: “These things stick in the memory – so you can change the policy now and you can probably reduce the damage, but it’s difficult to erase some people’s memory.”
Fellow pollster Lord Hayward, a Tory peer, additionally warned that too many U-turns might paint an image of insecurity for the prime minister.
“The big risk is that any government that reverses a headline policy – which clearly they have done on winter fuel allowance – immediately does two things.
“One, it leaves itself open for more bids for the reversals of policy, and secondly, it is a display of insecurity which automatically gives rise to talk about the replacement of a leader.”
He added of Sir Keir: “In relation to putting him back in a strong position, he has to be consistent. You can afford to reverse the odd policy, but you can’t afford to reverse lots of them. So he has to be clear about where he goes from here.”
On Wednesday, the prime minister introduced plans to row again on final 12 months’s controversial determination to means check the winter gas fee, telling the Commons he would have a look at rising the thresholds at which individuals begin to obtain the profit.
Sir Keir can be now reportedly contemplating scrapping the two-child profit cap – a coverage that restricts mother and father from claiming sure advantages for greater than two of their kids – as a result of it’s “the right thing to do”.
Critics of the coverage say eradicating the cap could be the simplest manner of lowering baby poverty throughout the UK amid warnings that as many as 100 kids are pulled into poverty daily by the restrict.
Labour backbenchers have additionally been urging ministers to axe the cap over current months as disquiet grows in opposition to Sir Keir’s wider welfare reforms, with greater than 150 MPs now making ready to vote in opposition to them.
However, Sir John identified that the choice is a fancy one for Sir Keir as a result of the two-child profit cap is comparatively well-liked amongst voters, including that reversing it’s “not what you would choose to do if you were really focused on why you were behind in the opinion polls”.
It would even be seen as a big backtrack for the prime minister, after he final 12 months stripped seven MPs of the Labour whip for rebelling in opposition to the federal government over an SNP-led movement to scrap the cap.
The reported change in method was revealed because it emerged that Nigel Farage is making ready to outflank Sir Keir on advantages by committing to scrapping the cap and absolutely reinstating the winter gas fee – piling strain on the prime minister to do the identical.
The PM has been making an attempt to sort out the menace posed by Reform UK after they received an enormous 677 council seats on the native elections and overturned the Labour-held Runcorn and Helsby parliamentary seat. Sir Keir’s celebration misplaced two-thirds of the council seats they received in 2021 and are persevering with to lag behind Reform within the polls.
Asked on Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg about whether or not the cap could be abolished, Labour deputy chief Angela Rayner refused to be drawn on the stories. “I’m not going to speculate on what our government is going to do,” she mentioned.
Meanwhile, the deputy prime minister was compelled to disclaim having ambitions to change into the chief of the Labour Party, amid rising rumours that she is searching for to problem Sir Keir.
Quizzed a few potential management problem, Ms Rayner categorically dominated out wanting to carry the place at any level sooner or later, saying she would “never” contemplate placing herself ahead as prime minister.
The Independent revealed that a lot of MPs from the so-called “soft left” of the celebration are attempting to power a change of path, with allies of Ms Rayner urging her to organise a management contest.
But Ms Rayner advised Sky News: “I don’t want to be leader of the Labour Party.”
Sir John warned that the questions over Sir Keir’s management displays the “nervousness that has now got into the Labour Party about Starmer and the character of his government, and certainly the party’s standing in the polls”.
“The authority of prime ministers rests very heavily on their being thought to be a winner for their party,” he mentioned. “The problem that Starmer now has is that doubts have crept into [Labour MPs’] minds as to whether or not…he is going to be a winner in 2029.”
Lord Hayward mentioned the questions over a doable management problem from Ms Rayner are a “real reflection of the difficulties that Labour are in at this point”.
It comes after a leaked memo, considered a part of a briefing marketing campaign in opposition to the deputy prime minister from rivals throughout the authorities, revealed that Ms Rayner backed plans to power middle-class households to lose their baby profit in a bid to keep away from welfare cuts for the disabled and a squeeze on public spending.
Meanwhile, Ms Rayner piled additional strain on the prime minister over his plan to water down the winter gas minimize, saying particulars could possibly be revealed inside weeks. Downing Street final week insisted that the primary alternative to unveil the modifications could be at October’s funds, elevating questions over whether or not that will enable sufficient time to have the modifications in power for subsequent winter.
Indicating a shift in place, Ms Rayner mentioned on Sunday: “Well, I think that we’ve got the upcoming spending review, and I’m sure that the chancellor will set it out when we’ve got the opportunity. At the first opportunity, she will set out what we’ll be able to do.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/starmer-labour-winter-fuel-child-benefit-rayner-b2757549.html