Poland concluded this Sunday an electoral cycle that started in 2023, and that can resolve whether or not its return to the middle of the European Union culminates or strikes away once more in the direction of the margins, to emerge as a potential bastion of Trumpism in Europe. The mayor of Warsaw, the Europeanist Rafal Trzawski, and the extremely -nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki arrived virtually tied to the second spherical of the presidential elections that can resolve the political course of the nation. The projections revealed after the 23.00, that are based mostly on the polls on the finish of Ipsos for the three principal tv, along with the scrutiny of the primary electoral tables, haven’t settled the outcome, however give Nawrocki a minimal benefit, with 50.7% of votes, in comparison with the liberal, with 49.3%. The distinction is so small, with simply 1.4 factors, which strikes within the margin of error.
Nervousness has not dissipated within the face of knowledge that solely confirms the deep polarization of a celebration social gathering in half. In the Electoral Barracks of Trzawski, within the Warsaw Ethnographic Museum, the stress was breathed earlier than 21.00, when the polls have been introduced on foot of the urn, which gave him a bonus of 0.6 factors. Despite the unfinished of that determine, the militants and supporters exploded in applause and cheers. “We have won! We have won, although the phrase ‘as the edge of a razor’ will enter forever in Polish politics,” Trzawski proclaimed. Po’s chief promised to work to unite the nation and be the president of all Poles.
Nawrocki hoped that the scrutiny would flip to these first knowledge. “We are going to win tonight,” he mentioned earlier than his. “We will win and save Poland. We will not allow the Donald Tusk government to close the circle and that the monopoly of the bad government – the government that does not care about public finances, the government that snatches our great dreams and aspirations – is consolidated,” he added.
The Head of State has no authorities powers, however has a basic weapon: veto energy within the legislative course of. A Nawrocki victory, the candidate endorsed by Law and Justice (PIS), would indicate, nevertheless, the definitive paralysis of the liberal reformist agenda. Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s ultraconservatives would attempt to instantly begin the best way again to energy. If Trzawski lastly defeated himself in his second try to be president, the prime minister, the liberal of middle -right Donald Tusk, will obtain the impulse he has been ready since he returned to energy in entrance of a liberal coalition in December 2023.
With the recognition of the manager in recoil, Tusk performs his management in these elections, each in Poland and the EU. Tonight the chief didn’t go to the museum the place his sport congregated.
This Sunday’s participation fee is learn as a monitor, within the absence of extra strong knowledge – the ultimate scrutiny can be identified foreseeably on Monday. It is interpreted {that a} participation larger than 70% is favorable for the liberal candidate. According to Ipsos, 72.8% of the 29 million voters known as the polls have voted.
In an electoral middle in Warsaw, a 44 -year -old businessman named Karol Weber voted the mayor in mid -morning. Sitting within the solar in some steps of the Palace of Culture and Science, the place a tail superior gentle, defined: “[Trzaskowski] It represents the Poland that I want: modern, open to different people, to different lifestyles, although I have raised as a Catholic. ”Zbig, a 65 -year -old retired scientist who preferred not to give his last name, had also chosen the liberal applicant.“ I firmly believe that the government will accelerate changes in the country [con Trzaskowski]”, He said.
But even in the center of the capital, more liberal, the gigantic urn kept ballots for Nawrocki. Like Kamil’s, 41 -year -old businessman, who evoked his main reason with the help of a translator online: “I do not need immigrants in Poland.” Zeszek, 55, voted only “as a minor evil”, because his first option was the ultra -right Slawomir Mentzen, who was third in the first round.
Poles presidents have an active role in foreign policy. Trzawski, 53, and vice president of Civic Platform, the center-right formation led by Tusk, is all the Europeanist that can be. During the electoral campaign, he insisted on his commitment to the EU, which he has demonstrated during his political career. “Poland should be a frontrunner within the European Union, not an issue. We should return to the desk the place choices are made, not restrict us to complain from the surface,” he said in a presidential debate. Wojciech Przybylski, director of the Visegras Insight Analysis Center, believes that the triumph of the liberal candidate “would consolidate Europe, with two victories, in Romania and Poland.” But Trzawski would also be, says the analyst, “an incredible interlocutor with the White House.”
The administration of Republican Donald Trump has made it clear, however, that he would prefer a Nawocki victory. The Secretary of National Security, Kristi Noem, generated a deep discomfort this week among the liberals with statements that sounded to electoral interference. If Pis candidate wins, said Poles can count on Trump as a great ally. “There will proceed to be American army presence right here … and they’re going to have American and prime quality manufacturing groups,” he said at the Conservative Political Conference (CPAC), which for the first time was held in Poland.
In that ultra conclave, which was also held in Hungary, Nawrocki had the express support of leaders such as Viktor Orbán, Hungarian Prime Minister, or George Simion, defeated in Romanian presidentials on May 18. For the populist international, these elections are so transcendental as for Europeanists. “If Nawrocki doesn’t win in Poland, Hungary would be the following and Viktor Orbán will lose energy,” Simion predicted. The candidate chosen by Pis says that he is “supporter” of the EU, “But from one which respects the sovereignty of countries and doesn’t impose ideologies.”
The campaign of the ultra -nationalist candidate was marked by several scandals that configure him as a person with a murky, violent past, with alleged connections with organized crime and prostitution. To the vote of the exboxer did not seem to import them too much. Some consider that it is a campaign for defamation of the liberal media. Others see it as a value: “This will shield us higher,” said a young man these days in Warsaw.
Nawrocki has adopted some Trumpism and Ultra International Current classics. First, the Poles, he says. In this prioritization in social, health and education services, not only a firm rejection of immigration. It also echoes a growing feeling in Polish society that questions public aid to Ukrainian refugees and even Trzawski has incorporated into his speech. But the Ultra candidate has gone a step further. In his attempt to win the votes of the Extrem Right Confederation Party (Konfederacja), which was third in the first round and was the favorite of the young people, promised to maintain the door of the NATO closed for kyiv.
With nuances, Nawrocki and Trzawski – who turned right in the campaign, also in search of more conservative voters -, they share their intention for strengthening the defense, in the NATO country that spends the most in relation to GDP. They also oppose the immigration agreement and defend shielding borders.
In social matters, the differences between the two are more evident. Nawrocki defends traditional Christian and nationalist values. The Mayor of Warsaw represents the country’s opening towards European principles, with the defense of abortion, LGTBI rights, and the rule of law.
Yellow card to government
The results of the first round, held on May 18, sounded all alarms in the liberal field, which in the last two weeks has turned to mobilize its disappointed electorate. The sum of the votes of the ultraconservatives and the extreme right beat mostly. The prime minister admitted that the government had received a yellow card and in a massive march in Warsaw last Sunday, he apologized. The executive he leads-with liberal matches that go from the center-left to the right-has barely turned about twenty of the 100 promises he made for the first 100 days in power.
As Przybylski says, the coalition has lacked “a constructive challenge.” “What joined them was their anti-pis character,” he adds. The mayor of Warsaw has committed to work to fulfill the commitments that guarantee the change in Poland.
If the scrutiny finally gives the victory to the exboxer, no one doubts that he will block the action of the government, who with Andrzej doubt, Pis, as president, has not yet managed to carry out any law to restore the rule of law. Nawrocki, who directed the National Memory Institute, “would undergo the Executive permanently; he would use the presidential palace as a center of operations against Tusk,” says Przybylski.
It would even be a primary step to PIS to attempt to get better the federal government within the subsequent legislative, scheduled for 2027. The Kaczynski social gathering would have arguments to delegitimize the Executive and press to carry early elections, a state of affairs that Tusk has rejected. To add a extra uncertainty layer to this very adjusted duel, each fields have complained about electoral interference, and the risk or worry of problem of electoral outcomes plans on the surroundings.
https://elpais.com/internacional/2025-06-01/polonia-vota-en-unas-presidenciales-de-resultado-incierto-entre-un-candidato-europeista-y-un-ultraconservador.html