The duties of Trump, within the primary situation with the usage of use frozen at 10%, would minimize 0.7 factors the expansion of the euro space cumulated within the years 2025-2027 with a “relatively content” affect. It could be a lot worse within the “serious scenario” by which a failure of the EU-USA negotiation would deliver American duties to the degrees introduced on April 2, about 28% common, with the relative European mutual response: the GDP of the euro space could be a 0.5% decrease in 2025, 0.7% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027, “in cumulative terms about a percentage point less than the basic scenario” with an inflation “with an inflation. 1.8% in 2027 instead of 2%. These are some of the simulations made by the ECB in an analysis on the risks of the commercial war.
https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/bce-senza-accordo-dazi-rischio-l-1percento-pil-AHON5T9