Turkey’s hazelnut frost threatens chocolate provide chains – DW – 08/12/2025 | EUROtoday

We’ve grown accustomed to grocery store shortages, from rest room paper throughout COVID-19 to sunflower oil amid the Ukraine struggle and eggs throughout chook flu outbreaks.

The newest casualty is the hazelnut, as a consequence of a uncommon and devastating frost in April in Turkey, the world’s largest provider, and ongoing local weather change pressures.

Since April, hazelnut costs have jumped over 35%, as exporters rushed to purchase up the extra restricted provide. At one level, Turkish hazelnut futures costs exceeded 200 lira ($4.91, €4.22) per kilogram, with predictions of $10 per kilo internationally.

This shortfall is ready to hit candy tooths exhausting, as the price of Nutella, the beloved chocolate-hazelnut unfold, faces sharp value will increase, together with different goodies and baked items.

Nutella’s hazelnut headache

Although hazelnuts do not get a lot consideration, they’re a key ingredient in lots of premium and mass market merchandise. The stakes are excessive for manufacturers like Ferrero, which makes Nutella and reportedly makes use of round 1 / 4 of the world’s hazelnut provide.

Nutella consists primarily of sugar and palm oil, however hazelnuts make up about 13% of the recipe. Millions of jars of the chocolate unfold are offered yearly, which means even small value rises drive up manufacturing prices and squeeze margins.

If sustained, the hazelnut scarcity could drive Ferrero and different producers to reformulate the recipes for his or her candy treats. Confectioners might doubtlessly be pressured to shrink product sizes or move prices onto customers simply as the favored festive interval attracts nearer.

Ferrero’s roots are in Italy’s Piedmont area, the place high-quality Tonda Gentile hazelnuts are grown. In addition to Italy, Ferrero sources hazelnuts yearly from Turkey, Chile and the United States.

The Italian meals large additionally makes Ferrero Rocher, Kinder Bueno and Mon Cheri Hazelnut goodies, amongst others, which all comprise the nut.

The firm performed down considerations about shortages in a press release to DW, saying: “The Ferrero Group diversifies sourcing from multiple origins worldwide and, thanks to its long-term strategy, Ferrero does not expect any supply disruptions for its products.”

The agency stated its sourcing technique ensured “a consistent year-round supply.”

How dangerous is the Hazelnut shortfall?

Estimates from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) in June put the 2025 crop at 520,000 metric tons, versus the roughly 750,000 tons anticipated initially, though it was later revised up.

The International Nut & Dried Fruit Council (INC) informed DW that the frost in Turkey had lower the hazelnut crop forecast by almost 22% to about 601,000 tons in-shell, citing a extra optimistic projection from the Black Sea Exporters’ Association (KiB).

According to INC, the most recent estimate suggests the nation misplaced about 167,000 tons to the frost, in comparison with preliminary fears of almost 250,000.

Fortunately, Turkey held again a few of its 2022 crop — round 150,000 metric tons, INC stated, which has now been exhausted. This ought to assist scale back the shortfall.

Hazelnuts are harvested yearly, sometimes in late summer season. However, in years of surplus, Turkey usually shops extra crops for future sale as farmers anticipate increased costs.

Confectioners search different provides

Corporate consumers at the moment are trying to Chile, Georgia, and the US to scale back reliance on Turkey, however are additionally secretly hoping that costs stabilize if the 2025 Turkish crop is best than feared.

“The hazelnut harvest in Turkey will begin on August 10 and is expected to be completed around mid-September,” the German confectioners’ affiliation BDSI informed DW in a written assertion. BDSI stated it could solely be capable of assess the affect as soon as the harvest was over.

Other hazelnut rising areas additionally face challenges. Chile and Georgia produce far lower than Turkey, and US hazelnuts, primarily from Oregon, differ in taste. Scaling up manufacturing elsewhere takes years, as hazelnut bushes take 5-7 years to mature, limiting short-term aid.

Some imagine Turkey’s delay in saying a base hazelnut value final 12 months additionally left a vacuum that was stuffed by speculators and exporters. The KiB historically units a value flooring at first of the harvest to stabilize the market and information farmer expectations.

But the shortage of a base value amplified scarcity fears, drove up costs and triggered panic shopping for. Sensing a possibility to revenue, farmers withheld inventory, additional tightening provide.

Changing local weather might normalize shortages

The scarcity additionally exposes a extra profound vulnerability: the fragility of crop-dependent sectors to the results of local weather change.

Hazelnuts are notably delicate to spring frosts, and this 12 months’s chilly snap in Turkey is a stark reminder of how the local weather disaster does not simply imply warmth however unpredictability.

Coffee and cocoa have not too long ago confronted climate-related disruptions. The hazelnut scarcity has pressured confectioners to rethink sourcing and elements for his or her candy treats.

Experts have warned that erratic climate might develop into extra frequent, threatening hazelnuts, almonds and walnuts.

Edited by: Ashutosh Pandey