What do the Democratic victories in New York, New Jersey, Virginia and California say? In the age of Big Data, the outcomes of the US election Tuesday will supply insights into the 2026 midterms. In macroscopic phrases, it’s clear that the Democrats gained, precisely one 12 months after Donald Trump beat Kamala Harris by a margin of two million votes. It is equally clear that we should keep away from the temptation to cut back a nation to a mayor.
First, Zohran Mamdani’s victory is the alternative of a shock. The margin by which the younger social democrat had crushed Andrew Cuomo within the primaries was too nice for him to have the ability to overturn him as an unbiased. Even extra important is the dem’s incapability to oppose Mamdani with a much less discredited candidate than Cuomo, the results of the outdated politics and overwhelmed by scandals just like the outgoing mayor Eric Adams.
Cuomo performed the playing cards of desperation
In his newest blitz in opposition to Mamdani’s 15-point lead, Cuomo performed the playing cards of desperation, together with the try to hyperlink 9/11 to an opponent who was simply ten years outdated on the time of the Islamist bloodbath. This multiplied participation, pushing it to ranges by no means reached since 1969, however with out altering its distribution.
In town of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, of Bernie Sanders (elected in Vermont, however rooted in New York) and of the occupation of Columbia (the place the brand new mayor’s father teaches), it was not sufficient to leverage worry to cease a platform that responded to the expectations (or goals?) of the voters. In political phrases, it may be famous that Obama’s help for Mamdani appears to have weighed greater than what Trump gave to Cuomo on the final minute: partly as a result of his opponent’s blessing is suspect, partly as a result of maybe Trump wished to offer Cuomo the kiss of dying, within the title of “the worse, the better”. More excellent news for democracy: Mamdani gained regardless of the avalanche of cash spent in opposition to him by Bill Ackerman, Mike Bloomberg and different billionaires.
The Democratic winners in New Jersey and Virginia are very totally different from Mamdani
While equally modern, the Democratic winners in New Jersey and Virginia are very totally different from Mamdani. In Virginia, for instance, Abigail Spanberger, so average as to have been a CIA agent for over ten years, gained a state that had topped a Republican 4 years in the past and which nonetheless voted for Trump in 2024. Compared to 2020, Spanberger gained 13 factors, a hit additionally mirrored on Jay Jones, who snatched the place of Attorney General from the Republicans regardless of the publication of an over-the-top personal chat. “Three people, two shots,” he wrote a number of years in the past, inviting individuals to decide on who to kill between the Republicans, Todd Gilbert, Hitler and Pol Pot. An even totally different story in New Jersey, the place Mikie Sherrill beat Jack Ciattarelli by a a lot higher margin than the outgoing governor Phil Murphy did in 2021. Not solely that: Sherrill collected round 10% extra votes than Harris, additionally profitable 4 extra counties. Like Mamdani, Sherrill additionally promised to make the lives of his fellow residents simpler and extra sustainable, however with a private story that was something however revolutionary. She is in truth a former Navy helicopter pilot, former federal prosecutor, and a member of Congress for six years.
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