the second of fact this Tuesday for Sébastien Lecornu | EUROtoday

HAS As the decisive vote on the Social Security finances approaches on Tuesday, December 9, the federal government is shifting ahead like a tightrope walker. Since his appointment, Sébastien Lecornu has himself theorized about his personal precariousness, confessing, in keeping with a number of unions, to being “the weakest Prime Minister of the V^e Republic.” And, in truth, day by day looks like it could possibly be the final. In an Assembly that has change into risky, the way forward for the finances, and maybe that of the federal government, is being performed out in an unstable stability.

In this in-between interval, Sébastien Lecornu estimated, throughout the evening from Friday to Saturday, that the draft finances for Social Security examined this week within the National Assembly was “not perfect” however “the best possible budget”, and inspired the deputies to talk out on Tuesday “in conscience, for the general interest”.

Bruno Retailleau denounces a “tax hold-up”

It was a vitriolic cost that the boss of the Republicans delivered on BFMTV on Sunday. Bruno Retailleau denounces a “fiscal hold-up”, a “social hold-up” and a “democratic hold-up”, inviting his troops to refuse a textual content that he considers irremediably flawed.

ALSO READ Sandrine Runel: “The socialists have made the social security budget acceptable”“This text is not voteable,” he decides, saying that LR deputies “will have the choice of abstention or voting against.” In his sights: the rise within the CSG, the abandonment of the pension reform, and a Prime Minister who, in keeping with him, “has put himself in the hands of the socialists”. The authorities, already supported by a fragile coalition, didn’t want this volley of dry wooden. The adoption of the income part was due, on Friday, to an alchemy of opportune absences, significantly within the ranks of the RN.

Tanguy calls for resignation, Bregeon brushes apart the speculation

In an environment saturated with electrical energy, the National Rally continues to be blowing on the embers. Sunday, within the RTL-Public Senate-Le Figaro-M6 Grand Jury, Jean-Philippe Tanguy, deputy president of the RN group, affirmed that Sébastien Lecornu must resign if the PLFSS was rejected. The particular person involved continues to rule out recourse to 49.3… for the second.

Immediate response from the federal government camp: spokesperson Maud Bregeon, in La Tribune Sundayconsiders the resignation “meaningless” and firmly refers the deputies to their duties. The Minister of Labor, Jean-Pierre Farandou, dramatizes: non-adoption would trigger a “political, economic and social crisis”.

Meanwhile, the central block is crumbling

But essentially the most perilous risk doesn’t come from the opposition. It is nestled within the very coronary heart of the central block. Édouard Philippe, head of Horizons, has determined to depart the federal government alone within the rain. Friday, throughout the vote on income, its deputies abandoned or abstained en masse: 4 for, 15 abstentions, 15 absent. An virtually ostentatious sign.
ALSO READ Debate on the Social Security financing regulation: the federal government is strolling on a tightrope
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Kangaroo of the day

Answer

The former Prime Minister considers the finances “as it stands” not possible to assist, specifically due to the suspension of the pension reform and the rise within the CSG on property. Behind this budgetary posture, his opponents see a technique of assumed distancing from Emmanuel Macron. Édouard Philippe, launched round 2027, needs to chart a really distinct path, even when it means destabilizing an already vacillating government.

A vote extra unsure than ever

Forty-eight hours earlier than the ultimate vote, the bulk recalculates. The PLFSS isn’t routinely synonymous with authorities survival, however its rejection would set off a shock wave whose trajectory nobody can management: large weakening of Matignon, weakening earlier than the final finances vote, return of the specter of dissolution. Tuesday, December 9, the deputies will first vote on the “expenses” half, earlier than voting on the whole textual content. Nothing is definite, the slender vote on the “revenue” part provided a style of it.

In this shifting chessboard, the Republicans are turning away, the RN is hesitating however might come again in pressure, the socialists are solely offering assist of variable geometry, Liot stays unfathomable, and Horizons is getting ready to play the referee… At the middle of this melee, the Prime Minister can solely depend on his personal stability. “Not having a budget would be dangerous, for our social protection, our public accounts and for the role of Parliament,” he wrote on X.