Taiwan’s weak hyperlink in China battle? – DW – 12/29/2025 | EUROtoday

Trade information means that ranges of Russian naphtha, a refined crude oil product, flowing into Taiwan stay regular regardless of Taipei saying it will scale back volumes.

A report printed in October by the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) revealed the Asian nation had change into the world’s largest importer of the fossil-fuel by-product from Russia.

Ciaran Tyler, lead naphtha analysis analyst at Brussels, Belgium-based commodity information analytics agency Kpler, says Taiwan’s imports of Russian-origin naphtha haven’t slowed considerably, regardless that they’ve stated they might not renew contracts to purchase the product.

Kpler information reveals that naphtha volumes from Russia imported by Formosa Petrochemical Corporation (FPCC) — the Taiwanese firm virtually fully liable for the surge in naphtha imports — remained regular in November and December.

“Formosa won’t renew buying for new term contracts next year, but fulfilling contracts already set up is something they have not backed away from, seemingly,” he advised DW.

Tyler expects import volumes to decline quickly early in 2026, as annual and quarterly contracts expire.

Luke Wickenden, one of many co-authors of the CREA report, advised DW that he believes Formosa is honest in its dedication to drag again.

The CREA report, written together with Taiwan’s Environmental Rights Foundation and the exiled Russian environmental group Ecodefense, had revealed that within the first six months of 2025, Taiwanese imports of Russian naphtha had surged six instances what they had been in 2022.

Naphtha is required to make chemical compounds required for high-tech manufacturing, together with semiconductor manufacturing.

“It’s essentially a base feedstock for producing all sorts of chemicals that fund its semiconductor industry,” stated Wickenden. “It’s an incredibly important chemical.”

Taiwan pulls again on naphtha imports

The report prompted debate in Taiwan over attainable dependence on Russia, with lawmakers arguing that China may leverage the dependence towards Taiwan sooner or later, given the more and more shut ties between Beijing and Moscow.

After the report was printed,

Formosa issued an announcement saying that as a non-public firm, it was not restricted from shopping for Russian naphtha, however that it requires merchants and suppliers to “comply with international sanctions.”

It claimed that as a result of “global market conditions,” it had been shopping for increased shares of Russian naphtha. “This is purely the result of market circumstances, not a deliberate shift in procurement strategy,” the corporate added.

Jheng Rui-he, a senior analyst on the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, a authorities suppose tank primarily based in Taipei, says it is vital to see Formosa’s purchases of Russian naphtha in that context.

“Based on the spirit of free trade, governments can’t interrupt the commercial behavior of private companies,” he advised DW.

Taiwan’s minister of financial affairs Kung Ming-hsin, subsequently, advised Taiwanese media that Formosa’s contracts for Russian naphtha had been quickly as a result of expire and that the corporate had “agreed not to purchase Russian naphtha in the future.”

For CREA’s Wickenden, the case reveals the way it was attainable to place strain on corporations that proceed to purchase Russian hydrocarbons. “It clearly shows that with coordinated pressure from NGOs and other think tanks, there is an opportunity to make real changes,” he stated.

Coal additionally within the combine

Although Taiwan has taken swift motion to chop Russian imports and scale back the danger of dependence, it has shone a light-weight on the island’s vitality combine.

More than 80% of Taiwan’s vitality is at present powered by imported coal and LNG, though the share of coal is regularly falling, with renewable vitality taking a few of the share. Around 97% of Taiwan’s vitality is imported.

Jheng Rui-he says Taiwan’s dependence on imports for its gas means it faces “significant geopolitical risks.”

Coal was additionally a spotlight of the CREA report. It identified that Taiwan had largely succeeded in lowering Russian coal dependence, with imports of the fossil gas from Russia falling by 67% within the first six months of 2025, in contrast with the identical interval in 2024.

In the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Taiwanese imports of Russian coal had climbed steadily, partly as a result of it grew to become reasonably priced. “It’s pretty natural that Taiwan essentially just started to try and make as much profit from importing cheaper Russian coal as they could,” stated Wickenden.

Taiwan really grew to become the fifth-largest purchaser of Russian coal through the conflict. The fall in coal imports in 2025 has been largely pushed by the Taiwanese authorities, with state-owned corporations corresponding to Taipower and the Taiwan Cement Corporation slashing coal purchases from Russia.

Wickenden says he’s nonetheless involved about personal corporations shopping for coal from Russia, even whether it is at present in comparatively small portions. However, he notes that the “risk isn’t huge anymore.”

Refined merchandise nonetheless a spotlight

Beyond coal, Taiwan nonetheless imports small volumes of LNG from Russia however total, it doesn’t at present look susceptible to coercion from Moscow or Beijing.

Jheng Rui-he famous that vitality variety is a core precept for the federal government however added you will need to do not forget that prices will all the time imply there’s a probability of Russia being in Taiwan’s vitality combine in some kind.

“Although countries’ imports from Russia would be criticized, in reality, factors such as inflation, the burden on consumers, and industrial competitiveness also need to be considered,” he stated. “I think it’s very hard for politicians to achieve balance.”

Luke Wickenden believes that whereas Taiwan is a constructive instance of how vitality flows from Russia will be lower, the European Union should preserve and step up strain on refined Russian oil merchandise specifically.

The EU has just lately stepped up sanctions on refined exports from Russia. It has known as on merchants and operators to have due-diligence procedures in place to restrict the dangers of merchandise made with Russian crude oil coming into the EU. The bloc has laid a particular give attention to items coming from Turkey, China and India, as a result of these nations’ excessive latest purchases of Russian crude.

However, the EU itself has pointed to the truth that oil can’t be bodily segregated as soon as combined, “it is impossible to certify the origin of all crude molecules imported into the EU.”

Wickenden believes the language and laws remains to be not sturdy sufficient concerning direct imports of refined merchandise, of the type that Taiwan discovered itself the main focus of.

“At the moment it’s only importers of crude and then exporters of refined products to say, EU countries, that are being scrutinized,” he stated.

Edited by: Uwe Hessler