UK’s nuclear menace not sufficient to discourage Putin, ex-military chief warns | EUROtoday

The UK and its Nato allies should improve their navy capabilities if the coalition of the keen in Ukraine is to be a profitable deterrence in opposition to Vladimir Putin, a former navy chief has warned.

In a damning report for the Policy Exchange thinktank, Sir Jock Stirrup, a former Royal Air Force commander and chief of defence employees, stated the UK has been hamstrung by an “outdated nuclear doctrine” and must recognise that deterrence depends “on a spectrum of capabilities, not just nuclear weapons themselves”.

It recommends that the UK and its allies restart large-scale navy workout routines with a nuclear component to display that there could possibly be a “slide” into full nuclear conflict as a “cognitive deterrence” to Russia, China and others.

It comes as Sir Keir Starmer announced that the UK will deploy peacekeeping troops alongside France to Ukraine if a ceasefire is agreed with Russia.

The prime minister, who ducked making a statement to the Commons on the plan, has refused to say how many armed forces personnel could be sent to the wartorn country and conceded that MPs would get to vote on the deployment first. According to reports, the UK force could be as few as 7,500 troops.

However, Sir Keir has been warned by Sir Richard Shirreff, who served as Nato’s deputy supreme allied commander in Europe, and ex-defence secretary Gavin Williamson that he would need at least 50,000 troops in Ukraine to deter Putin from attacking again, with the UK army currently totalling fewer than 80,000.

The international situation heated up on Wednesday with the seizure of the Russian-flagged oil tanker, Bella 1, which was linked to Venezuela, by the US with the help of the UK.

Posting on social media, the US European Command confirmed the seizure and said it was due to “violations of US sanctions”, following a two-week pursuit across the Atlantic Ocean, in a move that could see Donald Trump risk a dispute with Mr Putin.

Sir Jock’s report – named The Deterrence Theory of Sir Michael Quinlan – was co-authored with the co-ordinator of Policy Exchange’s Nuclear Enterprise Commission, Daniel Skeffington.

They claimed: “It is clear that western powers failed to deter Russian aggression in Ukraine because they failed to exercise deterrence in terms that are meaningful to its leaders.”

They famous that the UK had develop into reliant on submarine-based nuclear deterrents, however warned: “Deterrence works as a ‘package’: in deterrence theory there is no clear divide between nuclear and conventional weapons. Deterrence, therefore, rests on a spectrum of capabilities, not just nuclear weapons themselves.”

They added: “Deterrence cannot be based simply on possessing capabilities; it must be accompanied by the demonstrable ability and will to use them.”

Policy Exchange’s paper additionally argues that Britain’s mental capability for occupied with nuclear weapons, which was as soon as on the forefront of allied deterrence doctrine, has considerably degraded since 1989. As the safety surroundings has steadily worsened, this has created gaps which have been exploited by the UK’s adversaries, it stated.

The paper famous: “In the last twenty years, of course, the evidence of President Putin’s aggressive expansionist intent and the rapid development of China’s nuclear capabilities have brought us full circle to the consideration of deterrence between states and alliances.”

The broad issues outlined within the report come because the UK and European allies are reconsidering their defence footprints and expenditure.

Sir Keir has set an ambition of spending 3.5 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on defence and safety, and urged different allies to observe swimsuit, with Donald Trump making it clear that the US expects Europe to pay for its personal defence sooner or later.

Threats by Mr Trump to take Greenland from Denmark, with the US refusing to rule out utilizing navy motion to grab the territory, in addition to the state of affairs in Ukraine, have pressured European leaders to rethink their reliance on the US for defence.

However, issues are being raised over the UK and France’s capabilities to ensure peace in Ukraine.

Sir Richard Shirreff, who served as Nato’s deputy supreme allied commander in Europe between 2011 and 2014, stated allied forces would want no less than 50,000 troops in Ukraine to discourage an assault from Russia.

Meanwhile, former defence secretary Gavin Williamson warned {that a} token quantity wouldn’t be sufficient and stated that the UK would want an equal of “the army of the Rhine” of greater than 40,000 stationed in West Germany after the Second World War as a Cold War deterrent.

Downing Street sources stated that they count on different nations to become involved, with Germany already suggesting it too will signal as much as the coalition of the keen pressure.