Nigel Farage welcomes Nadhim Zahawi to Reform UK (Image: PA)
Reform begins the 12 months with a bang! A seat projection carried out on the finish of 2025 discovered Nigel Farage’s occasion on target for a giant majority. A string of polls in early 2026 additionally reveals Reform’s help rising, together with one by pollster YouGov, which had Reform up one level on 26% after recording 25% in late December. Now nonetheless, one other ballot by YouGov (which typically scores Reform decrease than the likes of Opinium, More in Common and Find Out Now) has Reform down a contact on 24%.
Apparently – in response to the commentariat anyway – this indicators ‘Peak Farage’ and the return of the Tories, even with the defection of Conservative huge beast and former Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi this week. More doubtless nonetheless is that YouGov is basically recording somewhat arising and down, however with the relative positions of the main events unchanged.
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Zahawi’s defection absolutely sends two huge indicators to these Tories which Reform nonetheless must win over. One, that Farage’s occasion shouldn’t be a one-man band so simply dismissed. And two, that Reform UK shouldn’t be a celebration of alleged crazies and loons.
A former Chancellor affords financial clout and information of presidency, precisely what Reform wants, whereas one other non-white face provides credibility to the declare Reform can nicely enchantment to a various vary of patriots.
Nevertheless, there are dangers in taking in Tory defectors, particularly when Reform needs to win over Labour voters, and put clear blue water between itself and the discredited Conservatives.
Moreover, not like Danny Kruger, most Tory defectors thus far haven’t been former MPs. That’s probably not serving to Reform’s parliamentary place. And once more, it is a onerous promote to be a revolutionary drive if you end up attracting so many of us from the ancien régime.
Still, each one who leaves the Conservatives for Reform indicators the long run is with the latter and never the previous. Post-Budget ‘Badenoch bounce’ or not, that is hardly an awesome search for the Tories.
Breathless commentators will pounce on the slightest ballot drop to recommend Peak Farage. I’m not so positive. True, immigration shouldn’t be the one concern on the town, and mass Tory defections have their professionals and cons.
But voters aren’t that forgetful concerning the years of Conservative deceit. Remember, it is a occasion which botched Brexit, and which – having campaigned to slash immigration – did the exact opposite.
This is a celebration which might have left the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) – with all its attendant issues hamstringing the nation – however by no means did.
The Tories – laughably seen because the occasion of regulation and order – sat again as our cities and cities turned extra harmful. Meanwhile, the occasion as soon as seen as on the facet of small enterprise, by no means mounted the dreaded IR35 guidelines impacting contractors and freelancers.
Net debt rose, and productiveness worsened, between 2010 and 2024. Yes, the Tories can level to the monetary disaster legacy and Covid. But that does not clarify every thing. What about chronically low funding throughout the years of failed Tory rule?
Meanwhile any Labour back-peddling on immigration or ID playing cards is extra doubtless considered as spineless moderately than robust. Who needs one other 5 years of Sir Keir and his continuity authorities?
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/2157581/tories-slating-reform-nadhim-zahawi