Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei is making issues troublesome for Trump | EUROtoday

If Donald Trump has an issue with Russia, he can name Vladimir Putin. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, however, can’t communicate for him. Even North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un has met with Trump thrice. But it’s troublesome to think about that the Iranian ruler would provide his American enemy such a stage.

“I don’t consider Trump worthy of exchanging messages with him,” Khamenei as soon as mentioned. If Trump had been to satisfy with Iranian President Massoud Peseschkian as a substitute, he can be coping with a political light-weight with no decision-making authority. Diplomatically talking, then, Iran is a “very strange country,” as Vice President JD Vance has simply remarked.

Khamenei has by no means left his nation in his 37 years of rule. He has by no means attended a summit. He works in another way than most heads of state, which does not make it any simpler to barter with Iran. As Supreme Leader, he sees himself as legitimized not by voters, however by God. He as soon as mentioned that God had taken possession of his tongue and spoken via him.

Khamenei thinks by way of dignity and humiliation. Even at a younger age, he had a comfortable spot for Persian poetry and the militant Islamist thinker Nawab Safawi. He typically speaks in spiritual parables. When he speaks politically, it’s often ambiguous, in order that he can all the time find yourself blaming others for unexpected developments.

After Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear settlement signed three years earlier in 2018, Khamenei blamed President Hassan Rouhani for this. When it was handed, he lectured him like a schoolboy: the failure of the settlement was a “very important experience that should teach future generations not to trust the West.”

Precisely as a result of he often likes to specific himself vaguely, what the Supreme Leader just lately mentioned was exceptional. Americans “should know that if they start a war this time, it will be a regional war.” Khamenei mentioned this in certainly one of his uncommon appearances in entrance of a crowd of supporters. The emphasis on “this time” was supposed to imply that it might not be like the opposite two instances when Iran’s commander-in-chief bowed to US superiority.

The first time was in 2020. Donald Trump had Khamenei’s most succesful navy chief and chief strategist Qassem Soleimani killed on the airport within the Iraqi capital Baghdad. In retaliation, Khamenei settled for a rocket assault on a US navy base in Iraq, by which, because of advance warning, nobody was killed.

The second time was in June 2025. The American president had Iran’s nuclear amenities bombed. In retaliation, Khamenei resorted to an assault on a US base in Qatar, by which nobody was harmed because of advance warning. Many of his advisers now consider that this warning was a mistake as a result of it may lead the American president to consider that he may bomb Iran at will.

Khamenei has his again to the wall. Since he took energy in 1989, the Islamic Republic has by no means been so weak. It is feasible that his risk of regional battle is only a bluff, as a harsh Iranian response to an American assault would lead to rather more devastating blows. But you possibly can’t make sure.

Domestically, Khamenei has simply proven that he’s prepared to behave ruthlessly to make sure the survival of his regime. Within two days, hundreds of protesters had been killed on his orders. Since then he has not discovered a phrase of sympathy or remorse for the kin. For the 86-year-old cleric, the protests and the navy threats are two sides of the identical coin. Behind all the things, he senses that the USA and Israel are pulling the strings. This was already the case in 1992, when Khamenei was confronted with protests for the primary time in his hometown of Mashhad.

His paranoia shouldn’t be solely inexplicable. Iran and Israel have been locked in a shadow battle for many years. Sabotage, assassinations and brokers are a part of it. During the present protests, Trump himself promised his assist, thereby giving the phrase to the worst-case state of affairs for which the Iranian safety equipment has been getting ready for many years: a simultaneous risk from inside and outdoors.

Ever since Khamenei’s protégé, Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in an assassination try in the midst of Tehran in 2024, the Iranian chief has additionally needed to concern for his security. Also as a result of he has to concern that there are traitors in his personal ranks. During the Twelve-Day War with Israel in June 2025, he’s mentioned to have been so shielded from his personal individuals in his bunker that he may hardly be reached on the essential second when the ceasefire negotiations had been at stake. Even now he has gone underground. There is theory that he was taken again to a bunker. One can hardly think about fleeing into exile for him, who has been praising martyrdom for many years.

In his uncommon appearances he now seems pale and fragile. What if, as within the case of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, America eliminated him from energy? That in all probability would not imply an finish to the regime. Given his superior age, preparations have lengthy been underway for a time after him.

There can be no assure {that a} successor can be much less ideological, unscrupulous and anti-Israel. Nevertheless, Khamenei is seen as the most important impediment to coverage change due to his stubbornness. Its rise coincided with the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1989. It is alleged that he discovered the lesson that concessions are the start of the top.

That would not make negotiations with the United States any simpler. Khamenei deeply distrusts Trump. The USA needs to annex Iran, he warns time and again. The regime accuses the American president of faking final yr’s nuclear negotiations with a view to allow Israel to launch a shock assault. The assault got here three days earlier than a scheduled assembly between Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US particular envoy Steve Witkoff.

There is theory in Tehran that the present talks may solely be an interim step in direction of additional confrontation. A yr in the past, when Khamenei gave his negotiators permission for nuclear negotiations, he mentioned: “If you know the other side, you can make a deal if you know what to do.” This time he did not say a phrase concerning the negotiations, however one can assume that he licensed them.

Is it conceivable that Khamenei makes a take care of Trump? As just lately as 2019, he wished him lifeless. The corresponding quote nonetheless hangs right now within the former American embassy in Tehran, which was transformed right into a propaganda museum. Most just lately, Khamenei referred to as Trump a “criminal” for calling on demonstrators in Iran to proceed. Trump, for his half, has derided the Iranian chief as an “easy target” for assassination.

From Khamenei’s perspective, a complete settlement can be similar to the much-quoted cup of poison that his predecessor Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini drank in 1988. The aged revolutionary chief himself used this metaphor to explain his settlement to a ceasefire with the Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, whom he had opposed for years. “Making this decision was deadlier than taking poison,” Khomeini mentioned. He solely met her as a result of “high-ranking political and military experts” urged him to take action. Maybe it will likely be related this time.

A yr after his reluctant choice, Khomeini died on the age of 86. When Khamenei succeeded him as Supreme Leader, he was initially solely imagined to function a transition determine for a yr. “I am not qualified for this position,” he mentioned on the time in a secret assembly, a video of which later emerged. And: “We should shed tears for the Islamic society that was forced to even suggest me.” In truth, the structure needed to be rewritten as a result of Khamenei didn’t have the required clerical rank.

He was chosen anyway for 2 causes. On the one hand, as a result of the supposed successor, Hossein-Ali Montazeri, rejected the execution of hundreds of opponents of the regime and was subsequently sorted out. Secondly, as a result of the person who helped Khamenei to workplace, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, thought of him weak and believed he may management the Supreme Leader. That was a misjudgment. Khamenei proved to be an individual with a powerful intuition for energy. His personal son Moschtaba is now being thought of as his doable successor. But there appear to be individuals within the energy equipment who do not like this. This is the one option to clarify why the Bloomberg company was capable of finding info suppliers in Iran who linked Moschtaba with luxurious properties in Frankfurt, London and Dubai.