tips on how to interpret the consequences of electoral sociology | EUROtoday

“Yes, but Parisian sociology…” In our discussions in regards to the municipal elections in Paris, it occurs that an interlocutor begins this sentence, with out at all times figuring out tips on how to end it. We hear from some that Paris is intrinsically left-wing, from others that town has turn into gentrified, that it has turn into youthful, or conversely aged, and that we might learn all of this like espresso grounds to detect the results of the election of March 15 and 22, which guarantees to be shut. Can we draw electoral classes from the social construction of the capital, the distribution {of professional} classes, age teams and the evolution of the inhabitants? Difficult, particularly because the reform of the voting technique for the cities of Paris, Lyon and Marseille adopted in the summertime of 2025 blurs the strains.

Between two municipal elections, each six years, there’s a turnover of round 30% of the Parisian inhabitants. Stopping on February 4, the deadline for registering on the electoral lists, the physique of voters in 2026 just isn’t fairly the identical as that of 2020. That 12 months, of the 553,017 votes solid within the first spherical, 44.6% have been on left-wing lists (socialists, communists, ecologists and “rebellious”), 25.1% on lists Macronists (of Agnès Buzyn and Cédric Villani) and 22.7% on the Les Républicains (LR) lists, led by Rachida Dati.

Another issue within the equation: the inhabitants of the capital is in decline and there at the moment are 83,748 fewer inhabitants than six years in the past, based on censuses from the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee). The most up-to-date, revealed in December 2025, even signifies that there have by no means been as few Parisians as because the finish of the nineteenth century.^e century, with 2.103 million residents – the bottom level recorded by INSEE dates again to 1999 with 2.125 million.

You have 72.66% of this text left to learn. The relaxation is reserved for subscribers.