Tories may very well be hit more durable by native election U-turn than Labour, high pollster says | EUROtoday

The Conservatives may very well be hit more durable than Labour by the federal government’s choice to desert plans to postpone elections in 30 areas, Britain’s main polling knowledgeable has mentioned.

Writing in The Independent, the highest pollster defined that whereas Labour had been at all times prone to face embarrassment within the May polls, the Tories at the moment are combating vital challenges from Reform UK in key counties that had been informed they might delay elections.

Sir John Curtice mentioned regardless of extra Labour-controlled councils having been as a consequence of postpone their elections, the Conservatives “have a good reason to regret the reversal” of the delays, with 4 giant Tory-majority county councils – Norfolk, Suffolk, East and West Sussex– now having to organise ballots.

“Although it was mostly relatively small Labour councils where only a third of the seats are up for grabs that opted for postponement, so also did three county councils under Tory control and a fourth where the Conservatives are the largest party,” he wrote.

“These are four big councils whose postponement accounts for over two in five of all the seats where the election had been postponed.

“As a result, the total number of Conservative councillors who now find themselves not having to defend their seat was slightly greater than the total number of Labour councillors.”

As effectively because the 4 county councils with Tory majorities, Conservative-controlled Harlow district council can even now must organise native elections for May following the federal government’s u-turns.

Sir John warns these councils are in areas the place Kemi Badenoch’s occasion are dealing with a specific risk from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.

“Norfolk and Suffolk, East and West Sussex… these are just the kind of shire Tory councils where Reform made a breakthrough in last year’s local elections,” he writes.

“Kemi Badenoch will be concerned Nigel Farage could now register a repeat performance.”

Sir Keir Starmer was compelled to reverse plans to postpone elections throughout 30 councils this May after being warned it might be unlawful, in what marked yet one more humiliating U-turn for the federal government.

The authorities beforehand mentioned the delays had been requested by native councils as a consequence of an absence of sources amid ongoing plans to scrap two-tier authorities and merge them into single unitary councils by 2028.

Last month, native authorities secretary Steve Reed confirmed 29 of the 136 council elections as a consequence of be held this 12 months will now be delayed till 2027. One additional council was then later granted permission to postpone elections.

The Electoral Commission beforehand criticised the delays, saying it risked “damaging public confidence”. The choice has additionally prompted claims from opposition events that the postponements are politically motivated.

The authorities additionally confronted criticism from native authority leaders, with one accusing Sir Keir’s administration of “wasting everyone’s time”.

Conservative run Norfolk County Council (NCC), which final held elections in May 2021, is without doubt one of the 30 native authorities that had been anticipating to postpone their elections this 12 months.

The chief of NCC, councillor Kay Mason Billig mentioned: “I note the government’s change of mind on yet another decision it couldn’t stick to – wasting everyone’s time.”

Meanwhile, the chief of Suffolk County Council, Matthew Hicks, mentioned native authorities are “experiencing whiplash” from authorities selections which make it “almost impossible” to plan successfully for residents.

And a spokesperson for East Sussex County Council mentioned the authority’s workload will “intensify” with the “added demand” of organising a vote.