Virginia Could Decide The Redistricting War. Democrats Aren’t Taking It For Granted. | EUROtoday

Top Democratic operatives are warning donors and elected officers the trail to move a voter referendum giving the celebration a possible 10-1 benefit in congressional seats in Virginia is narrower than many assume, arguing the celebration doesn’t have the identical benefits it did when an identical referendum romped to victory in California final November.

The Old Dominion is solely much less Democratic than California. The election can be at an odder time: April 21 as an alternative of Election Day. While California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) was determined to move Proposition 50 to show his bona fides to 2028 main voters, Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D) has been solely passively supportive of the efforts there.

And Democrats really feel the Republican forces lining up in opposition to the referendum are extra organized — and extra intently tied to President Donald Trump’s political operation — than a California marketing campaign that ran out of money months early and led to bitter infighting.

While Democrats nonetheless assume voters are extra probably than to not approve the 10-1 maps within the April 21 referendum, the possibilities of repeating the 64% margin that “yes” forces reached in California are slim, and making certain victory may very well be expensive.

“This is going to be a messaging battle. People are looking for a way to push back on Trump, and this gives them a chance to do so,” mentioned Jared Leopold, a former Democratic Governors’ Association official with intensive expertise within the state. “But this isn’t California. Virginia is a blue-tinted swing state, not a true blue state. And Republicans have a more recent record of success here.”

The 10-1 maps, which the Virginia General Assembly handed earlier this week, have been crafted in response to Trump’s push to redraw strains in Republican-controlled states to eradicate Democratic seats. It began with the GOP eliminating 5 seats favoring Democrats in Texas, and has continued in North Carolina, Missouri and Ohio. While the Republican push hit notable roadblocks in Indiana and Kansas, it’s anticipated to proceed with Florida Republicans trying to intestine Democratic districts later this 12 months.

Democrats have responded with a referendum in California, which is probably going to assist the celebration choose up 5 seats within the vivid blue state. The celebration might additionally act in Maryland within the coming months, and in New York, Colorado and different states after the 2026 midterm elections.

That makes Virginia probably decisive within the Trump-launched mid-decade redistricting wars. If the referendum passes, Democrats might primarily draw even and even probably come out forward. If it fails, Republicans will probably have a small benefit.

The significance is underscored by who’s working the marketing campaign on either side. Officials intently aligned with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) are working for the Democratic marketing campaign, generally known as Virginians for Fair Elections, and a nonprofit managed by allies of Jeffries donated $5 million to the trouble earlier this week because the celebration chief guarantees to spend tens of thousands and thousands on it.

The GOP group pushing a no vote on the referendum, dubbed Virginians for Fair Maps, has intensive ties to Trump and FP1, the GOP consulting agency beforehand led by prime Trump political aide Chris LaCivita. The endeavor is led by Michael Young, who was Trump’s state director for Virginia and North Carolina through the 2024 election and is a accomplice at FP1. The marketing campaign supervisor, Finn Lee, was beforehand a director of “election integrity” on the Republican National Committee. The group’s state-registered lobbyist, Richard Cullen, is a accomplice at FP1’s public affairs arm.

And each former Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares — who raised important sums in a dropping effort within the state’s 2025 normal election — and former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor are serving to to boost cash for the Republican group.

“All across Virginia, voters are speaking out against this brazen political power grab that allows politicians in Richmond to choose their own voters,” Miyares and Cantor mentioned in a assertion this week.” “It’s wrong, it’s illegal, and it will fail.”

Virginians for Fair Maps didn’t return a request for remark, however House Republican operatives have been assured their try could be stronger than the “no” facet in California, which was run by allies of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and burned by way of $33 million donated by billionaire Charles Munger to little impact. The group was successfully broke earlier than Election Day, permitting Newsom to cease fundraising for Democratic efforts.

Republicans have been optimistic their efforts could be extra organized, however privately mentioned victory was unlikely ― an uncommon election in a state the place Trump is deeply unpopular is prone to entice fired-up Democrats. They noticed some hope in convincing voters have been now not merely countering Trump however engaged in their very own energy grabs.

“We have to convince voters Democrats are the ones overreaching now,” mentioned one GOP operative with intensive expertise in Virginia who requested anonymity to talk frankly about celebration technique.

Other Democrats famous the hole between Spanberger and Newsom’s relative enthusiasm for brand spanking new maps. Newsom, thought of one of many Democratic Party’s greatest fundraisers, primarily handled the Proposition 50 referendum as the start of his 2028 presidential marketing campaign.

Spanberger, a average extra wanting to show her bipartisanship than her progressive bona fides, was not concerned within the General Assembly’s choice to redraw the congressional maps, and anxious the celebration ought to draw a 9-2 map as an alternative.

“When other states take extreme measures, I trust Virginia voters to respond,” Spanberger mentioned in a press release after signing the invoice creating the redistricting referendum.

Republicans are nonetheless holding out some hope that the Virginia Supreme Court might strike down all the maneuver as unconstitutional, although a ruling Friday that the referendum can proceed for now signifies the prospect of a authorized rescue could also be slim.

Public polling on the referendum has been restricted: A Christopher Newport University survey launched final month confirmed that 51% of registered voters within the state backed the referendum, with 43% opposed.