In the previous couple of meters there’s a neck-and-neck race for Kretschmann’s legacy: the Greens are out of the blue virtually on a par with the CDU. How can that be? And what does this need to do with the “Doe Eyes” video?
There are just a few numbers that fully flip the beforehand fairly boring election marketing campaign in Baden-Württemberg on its head – and provides it loads of cheer: Cem Özdemir’s Greens, which had been far behind in polls for a lot of months behind the CDU, which was really assured of victory, are out of the blue virtually on a par with the Conservatives. What’s occurring within the nation proper now?
The CDU’s lead within the southwest had continued to shrink over the previous few months, however ten days earlier than the election it was nonetheless thought of tough to meet up with. Then the polling institute Infratest dimap revealed numbers for ARD on Thursday which can be fairly spectacular: The Greens are out of the blue at 27 % – only one proportion level behind the CDU, with a margin of error of two to 3 factors. At the top of January the hole was nonetheless six factors and in October it was 9 factors. In October 2024 it was 16 factors.
For the consultant survey, 1,530 eligible voters in Baden-Württemberg have been surveyed between February twenty third and twenty fifth. It isn’t the case that the CDU is doing a lot worse within the new survey. Even although the election campaigners within the southwest have acquired extra headwind than tailwind from the federal occasion in current weeks: the CDU has solely misplaced one proportion level. The Greens, then again, have merely made vital positive factors. “That’s unusual,” says Joachim Behnke, political scientist at Zeppelin University in Friedrichshafen, in regards to the 4 proportion level bounce inside just a few weeks. Now the race appears fully open.
His colleague Ulrich Eith, a political scientist on the University of Freiburg, explains the inexperienced race to meet up with the rising significance of the persona values of the highest candidates – during which the previous Federal Minister of Agriculture Özdemir has been clearly forward for the reason that starting of the election marketing campaign. “It has to be the case that the personality factor increasingly plays a role,” he mentioned. “There’s no other way to explain it.” The Greens would not have modified something about their program. As a celebration, many individuals in Baden-Württemberg most popular the CDU, however as prime minister individuals would fairly have Özdemir than the nonetheless comparatively unknown CDU prime candidate Manuel Hagel.
This can also be confirmed by the survey: If the individuals of Baden-Württemberg might elect the pinnacle of presidency instantly, 42 % would at present select Özdemir and solely 21 % would select Hagel. “The personalization of the election campaign is incredibly strong,” says political scientist Behnke. “It’s more and more about minds – and Özdemir is the most popular candidate.” He separated himself extraordinarily from his occasion throughout the election marketing campaign. “The Greens don’t even appear on the poster. It’s completely tailored to the person – and it seems to have been worth it.”
Is the catch-up additionally resulting from sayings a couple of scholar with “fawn eyes”? In the center of the recent section of the election marketing campaign, a Green member of the Bundestag posted an eight-year-old clip on social networks that confirmed CDU frontman Hagel, then 29 years outdated and a member of the state parliament, being interviewed in a restaurant in Ulm.
In the scene, Hagel experiences on a go to to high school. Back then, 80 % of the category was ladies. “Well, there are worse dates than this for 29-year-old MPs,” says Hagel. Then he responds to a scholar: “I’ll never forget the first question, her name was Eva, brown hair, fawn eyes.” These sentences at the moment are inflicting a stir – and extreme criticism. “The introduction to this interview in 2018 was rubbish,” Hagel lately admitted.
The survey was performed at precisely the identical time as the controversy was heating up. To what extent that is mirrored within the proportion values is unclear. Maybe it’ll value Hagel approval within the subsequent few days.
“Even if it is not perceived as a serious flaw, something always sticks,” says political scientist Behnke. The video factor might mobilize the Greens. “That can be damaging,” agrees Eith. Nevertheless: CDU common voters are extra of a complicated age and aren’t on these platforms, so they do not discover it as a lot.
Strategic voting conduct
Experts additionally consider strategic conduct by left-leaning voters is a doable rationalization for the inexperienced rise within the polls. Because the left misplaced and, with 5.5 %, has to fret about its assured entry into the state parliament. The SPD solely acquired 7 %, dropping one other proportion level.
The solely real looking authorities possibility at present stays a coalition of the Greens and the CDU, as is at present the case underneath Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann (Greens), who’s not operating. If the CDU and the Greens are virtually on a par, the query of energy arises once more: Who will lead doable discussions? Who is entitled to the prime ministership?
Anyone who votes for the Social Democrats or the Left runs the chance of giving their vote to a future opposition pressure or, at greatest, to a junior companion in a authorities. From the perspective of some SPD supporters, a Green-led authorities remains to be higher than a CDU-led one, says Behnke.
One factor is evident: surveys aren’t elections. The tolerance for error is excessive and such surveys are at all times topic to uncertainty. Waning occasion ties and more and more short-term voting selections make it tougher for opinion analysis institutes to weight the info.
Behnke additionally views surveys with skepticism. But simply publishing the brand new figures will have an effect, he says. “This mobilizes the left side particularly strongly,” he says. “But it can also give the CDU another boost.”
The head-to-head race not solely makes the previous couple of meters of the election marketing campaign extra thrilling – such an open race can also be good for democracy, say the specialists. “That motivates people to go to the polls,” says Eith – on each side. 1 / 4 of voters are nonetheless undecided.
It stays thrilling till March eighth.
dpa
https://www.stern.de/politik/deutschland/landtagswahl-2026–darum-holen-die-gruenen-in-baden-wuerttemberg-jetzt-auf-37175016.html