Inflation stays at 2.3% in February, awaiting a significant overview in March | Economy | EUROtoday

Inflation remained secure in February at 2.3% year-on-year, as confirmed this Friday by the National Institute of Statistics (INE), thus confirming the information superior on the finish of final month. The client worth index (CPI) repeats the speed recorded in January and consolidates, at the least on paper, a part of relative stability after the oscillations recorded all through 2025. However, the studying of this knowledge is already conditioned by the conflict that has damaged out within the Middle East. The assault by the United States and Israel on Iran, and the following rise in power costs, threaten to quickly alter the inflationary outlook. Different analysts warn that February’s figures provide {a photograph} of an economic system previous to the brand new disaster power and which, subsequently, will quickly be old-fashioned.

Precisely, in February the moderation in costs was essentially as a result of fall within the worth of electrical energy. This compensated for the rise in the price of some companies linked to day by day consumption, resembling eating places, in addition to the rise in sure meals. This stability between opposing forces allowed the overall index to stay virtually unchanged. Core inflation—which excludes power and unprocessed meals as a result of their better volatility—additionally remained at 2.7% in February, one tenth above the January report. This indicator, which is normally used to measure the structural development of costs, displays the persistence of sure tensions within the prices of companies and items extra intently linked to the financial cycle.

The conduct of the CPI within the second month of the yr displays the stability between opposing pressures. On the one hand, power costs had a downward impact, particularly electrical energy, whose evolution cushioned the affect of different elements extra linked to home demand. On the opposite hand, the rise in costs of eating places – which registered a year-on-year enhance of 4.8% – and of some meals merchandise – the group as an entire rose by 3.2% – pushed up the overall index, though with out sufficient depth to change the general fee.

The most drastic variation is noticed in rubbish assortment, with a rise of 28.6% that coincides with the entry into drive of the brand new fee system that forces taxpayers to cowl the true value of the elimination and subsequent administration of waste. They have been adopted by jewellery and wristwatches, which rose 27.5% as a result of revaluation of gold. The transport sector has additionally turn out to be dearer, significantly trains, with a rise of just about 14% in comparison with a yr in the past.

Regarding the buying basket, the part that has elevated probably the most in comparison with February of final yr is espresso and its substitutes, with a rise of 8.3%. They are adopted by dairy merchandise and eggs (6%), fruits (5.9%) and meat (5.4%). At the alternative excessive, oils and fat have skilled a notable correction, falling 13.1% in comparison with 2025. If we glance in additional element, we see that eggs have been the product that has turn out to be costliest, with a year-on-year enhance of 30%. On the opposite hand, olive oil has turn out to be cheaper by virtually 17%.

The affect of conflict

Although the value index remained according to the European Central Bank’s goal, the Ministry of Economy has prevented presenting the determine as a conclusive signal of inflationary stabilization. The warning responds to the change of situation brought on by the conflict within the Middle East and the rise in power costs, which is already being transferred to worldwide markets, with the barrel of brent above 100 {dollars}. The blow to costs is so foreseeable that the Government has superior that it’s engaged on a package deal of fiscal measures aimed on the countryside and transport, with a view to counteract the dangerous results of the conflict disaster.

Institutional prudence coincides with the studying made by many analysts. For them, the obvious stability mirrored within the February knowledge corresponds to an economic system previous to the present one. power situation, with the oil and liquefied gasoline commerce strangled by the conflict in Iran. The market’s consideration has thus shifted to the conduct of costs in March, a month through which the affect of the battle within the Middle East can be clearly perceived. Miguel Cardoso, chief economist at BBVA Research, considers that the provisional forecast of three.1% for that month has turn out to be a “floor” after the sharp enhance in gasoline costs registered in latest weeks.

As he explains, the rise in gasoline costs can have a right away affect on the CPI, as a result of weight they’ve within the consumption basket. Other results derived from increased power costs may take longer to be transferred to the ultimate client. These embrace the value of electrical energy or the price of meals, particularly these most depending on the intensive use of fertilizers, whose worth is intently linked to power markets.

An analogous imaginative and prescient is maintained by the chief economist for Europe at Oxford Economics, Ángel Talavera, and Raymond Torres, director of Economics at Funcas. The latter warns that rising power costs are already starting to filter into the whole financial cloth. Torres particularly factors out the evolution of contemporary meals, which began at charges increased than 6% and which, in response to his estimates, may exceed 7% year-on-year throughout March. The basis of the outdated financial savings banks estimates that this March inflation will attain 3.6%, and in subsequent months it should climb above 4%, though it additionally foresees a rest within the second a part of the yr.

Beyond the doable particular rebound, the important thing subject for economists is the persistence of inflation. Torres emphasizes that the financial cloth in the present day is far more delicate to cost actions than 4 years in the past, when the outbreak of conflict in Ukraine coincided with the reopening of economies after the pandemic and with a robust disorganization of worldwide provide chains.

Europe faces, in his opinion, a weaker economic system. And though Spain maintains comparatively stable progress in comparison with its neighborhood companions, the symptoms are starting to point out some moderation. This cooling of consumption may act as a pure brake on underlying inflation, avoiding for now a deeper structural affect by way of the so-called second spherical results, that’s, the generalized switch of value will increase to wages and costs, fueling a spiral.