Why Viktor Orban is vilifying Ukraine earlier than essential parliamentary elections | EUROtoday

In 1241, the Mongol military marched into Hungary, creating indescribable chaos. Most of the nation’s spiritual dignitaries had been slaughtered. The pillaging, massacres and famine the international invaders left of their wake imprinted an plain hint on the Hungarian psyche.

Centuries later, as Hungary braces for essential parliamentary elections in April, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is as soon as once more tapping into the demons of Hungary’s previous.

Fidesz, Orban’s far-right occasion, is specializing in a brand new, modern-day international menace – the hazard posed by Ukraine. As a part of its re-election technique, the Hungarian authorities has sought to stoke tensions with Ukraine.

“Orban has repeatedly opposed European funding and military support for Ukraine’s fight,” stated Michael Ignatieff, a former Canadian opposition chief and historian, who was rector of the Central European University in Budapest when Orban’s authorities pressured it to relocate overseas in 2017.

“What’s new in the campaign is the personal vilification of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the claim that Zelensky will drag Hungary into the war and Hungarian soldiers will die,” Ignatieff added.

The threat of an imminent war

Fidesz “initially campaigned with domestic and foreign policy narratives”, stated Richard Demény, a international coverage analyst at Political Capital, a analysis institute in Budapest. “The home coverage narratives centered on the Orban regime’s achievements over the previous 16 years.”

Yet the messaging has so far done little to win over voters who want more from the government in areas like public education and healthcare.  “To distract from these shortcomings and to form the general public agenda, Fidesz has employed fear-based narratives to exacerbate concern and nervousness in segments of society prone to the specter of an imminent conflict,” stated Demény.

Orban’s occasion has been trailing within the polls since final 12 months, whereas the centre-right Tisza occasion, led by Peter Magyar, is choosing up pace. Magyar’s supporters hope to finish Orban’s 16-year rule.

In reponse to his rival’s lead within the polls, Orban has stepped up his assaults on Ukraine. In one marketing campaign video launched by the ruling occasion in February, a younger Hungarian lady asks about her father. The video then cuts to footage of a blindfolded soldier in a Hungarian uniform being shot within the head and falling into the muddy floor. A caption reads: “This is only a nightmare now, but Brussels is preparing to make it a reality. Fidesz is the safe choice!”

Fidesz has framed the 2026 elections as a selection between conflict and peace, and the video implies {that a} Tisza victory would drive Hungarians to go to conflict.

“For the first time, Orban is straightforwardly alleging the existence of political coordination and collusion between the Ukrainian administration, EU institutions, and the Hungarian opposition to remove him from power and establish a pro-Ukraine government in Hungary,” stated Daniel Hegedüs, deputy director at The Institute for European Politics.

From the cosmopolitan streets of Budapest to small villages within the countryside, giant marketing campaign billboards are getting used to attempt to sway “segments of society susceptible to the threat of an imminent war”, stated Demény.

“They themselves are the risk,” learn a caption of a pro-government billboard that includes a mixed photograph of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Zelensky and Magyar.

‘No oil, no money’

At the core of Hungary’s escalating tensions with Ukraine is what Orban referred to as “the Ukrainian oil blockade” in a March 17 video posted on X.

Ukraine and Hungary have been locked in an escalating feud since Russian oil deliveries to Hungary and Slovakia had been halted in January as a result of harm to the pipeline, which crosses Ukrainian territory. Ukrainian officers have blamed the harm on Russian drone assaults.

Orban has accused Zelensky of intentionally holding up oil provides – claims that Zelensky denies. In retaliation, Orban has vetoed a serious €90 billion EU mortgage to cowl Ukraine’s navy and financial wants for 2 years.

“If President Zelensky wants to receive his money from Brussels, then he must reopen the friendship oil pipeline,” stated Orban within the video.

Orban has even accused Ukraine of plotting to assault him and his household, releasing a video in March purporting to indicate him chatting with his daughters over the cellphone and warning them of the menace.

Read extra’Ready to manipulate’ Hungary: Former ally Magyar challenges Orban with Europe gun

“Orban’s basic political method is to create enemies. First Brussels, then George Soros, and now Peter Magyar, all portrayed as malign alien forces conspiring to harm Hungary. Orban then portrays himself as the plucky, heroic defender of the Hungarian nation,” stated Ignatieff.

Yet Orban might have met his match in a person like Magyar, added Ignatieff, who’s “ex-Fidesz himself, and far too clever a politician to cede the nationalist ground to Orban.”

“Magyar tours the countryside, sings patriotic folk songs with his supporters, waves the national flag, quotes Hungary’s great poets and is competing effectively with Orban in the battle for the nationalist vote.”

Orban’s technique may nonetheless work. In his ebook “Hungarians”, the historian Paul Ledvai wrote that an important psychological consequence of the Mongol invasion was the inference that “We Hungarians are alone”.

The distrust of foreigners, even once they had been urgently wanted as allies in occasions of acute hazard, “could be effective at keeping Fidesz and undecided voters focused on an existential threat,” stated Demény.

(With AP)