Raphaël Glucksmann information nonetheless unsure dynamics | EUROtoday

L'one goes up, the opposite goes down. 10.5% voting intentions for Raphaël Glucksmann in November 2023, greater than 9 factors behind the Renaissance listing of Valérie Hayer, not but nominated at the moment. Then 11.5% in March 2024, at 6.5 factors. And lastly 14% in April, 3 factors behind the Macronist candidate. Can the candidate of the Socialist Party (PS) and Place publique end in second place? That's not all: in November 2023, Glucksmann's listing exceeds that of Europe Ecologie-Les Verts (EELV) by just one level and that of La France insoumise (LFI) by 3 factors. Suffice to say that the benefit is small. Today, the listing is double that of its rivals.

A ballot just isn’t an electoral end result and lots of issues can nonetheless occur between now and June 9, particularly in an election just like the European elections, that are notably conducive to moods and twists and turns within the final days. But on the very least, in a seemingly sluggish marketing campaign, the citizens is on the transfer. What precisely is going on?

First explanatory component: Glucksmann thrives on the weak spot of its opponents. Because it’s not the left as an entire that’s progressing, fairly the opposite: 32.5% voting intentions in November 2023, 32% immediately. Worse nonetheless, the left bloc is stagnating, whereas voters who voted for Emmanuel Macron within the 2022 presidential election or for Nathalie Loiseau within the 2019 European elections are turning away in favor of the Glucksmann listing, which ought to have elevated the quantity. whole left-wing votes. It is subsequently good that different phenomena of evaporation and switch are at work and that if the listing led by Raphaël Glucksmann is progressing, it’s firstly as a result of LFI and the ecologists are doing badly and this listing partly compensates for his or her weaknesses with the contribution of voters from elsewhere.

A much less indignant nation

For LFI, issues are clear and fairly effectively documented: Jean-Luc Mélenchon crushes his candidate Manon Aubry along with his presence and his technique, totally devoted to the following presidential election and to his particular person. This opens up area for Raphaël Glucksmann. Firstly as a result of the nation is much less indignant than earlier than. He continues to be massively sad, however the a part of those that say ” angry “ decline (36% versus 45%, – 11), whereas those that merely say “unhappy” rise (55% in opposition to 51%, + 4). Even amongst supporters of La France insoumise, anger fell by 9 factors (55%, in comparison with 64%). Mélenchon is subsequently fairly merely out of time in his radicalization technique.

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