What occurred to the Macronist voters? | EUROtoday

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Supporters of Valérie Hayer, during a meeting of the head of the Renaissance list, in Paris, May 7, 2024.

HASIn the primary spherical of the 2022 presidential election, Emmanuel Macron gained practically 28% of the votes. This start line is broad – undoubtedly even too broad insofar as, much more than the earlier ones, this presidential election was marked, notably in its final days, by a strategic vote which inflated the sails of each Emmanuel Macron than Marine Le Pen or Jean-Luc Mélenchon. But these 28% have been a actuality not so way back and represent each a benchmark and electoral potential: these are subsequently the two,000 respondents from the April electoral panel of the Ipsos survey, in partnership with the Sciences Po Political Research Center (Cevipof), the Montaigne Institute, the Jean Jaurès Foundation and The world, having voted for Emmanuel Macron within the first spherical of the presidential election who’re on the middle of this research.

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To perceive the rating of 16% of voting intentions at which the Renaissance listing at the moment caps and measure the chances of a rebound, we should go in the hunt for misplaced Macronist voters.

What have they develop into ? A primary response consists of detailing the voting intentions: 50% abstention and, among the many 50% of voters, 56% for the Renaissance listing, 16% for the Socialist Party – Public Square listing, 7% for the Republican listing , 6% for the National Rally listing and three% for the Ecologists listing. To which we should add 6% who’re distributed amongst different lists and 6% who haven’t commented in the mean time. But these outcomes have to be put into perspective and, above all, explored additional.

A second reply permits us to go nicely past these figures. By analyzing their socio-demographic profile, their European identification, their political positioning and their financial and social convictions, we are able to perceive what distinguishes and what brings collectively the 4 essential classes of Macronist voters: let's name them, ranging from their origin – the 2022 vote – and their vacation spot – the voting intention in April 2024, the macrono-abstentionists, the macrono-macronists, the macrono-socialists and the macrono-republicans.

The socio-demographic profile

If we stick to 2 goal standards – age and occupation – and a subjective criterion – the extent of satisfaction in life –, a primary divide emerges between the Macronists who vote and people who don’t vote. extra.

The 2022 Macronists who vote in 2024 – no matter their vote – are outdated: there are 54% of voters over 60 among the many Macrono-Republicans, 60% among the many Macrono-Socialists and even 68 % amongst macrono-macronists. On the opposite hand, a significant distinction: there are solely 32% amongst macrono-abstentionists.

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