Macron bets on cause | EUROtoday

Einen so kurzfristig anberaumten Wahlkampf für die Nationalversammlung hat Frankreich noch nie erlebt. In 20 Tagen sollen die Franzosen ihre Abgeordneten neu bestimmen. Eigentlich beginnt Frankreich, sich Ende Juni allmählich in die langen Sommerferien zu verabschieden. Stattdessen findet am 30. Juni der erste Wahlgang statt und am 7. Juli der zweite.

„Wir haben einen Verrückten an der Staatsspitze“, reagierte der Wortführer der Linkspartei LFI, Francois Ruffin. „Emmanuel Macron ist gescheitert, er wird sich nicht mehr erholen“, sagte Republikanerchef Eric Ciotti.

Mit der Auflösung der Nationalversammlung hat Präsident Emmanuel Macron auf die Abstrafung seiner Partei und den Triumph des Rassemblement National (RN) in der Europawahl reagiert. Macrons Spitzenkandidatin Valérie Hayer bekam nur 14,6 Prozent der Stimmen, was 13 Sitzen im EU-Parlament entspricht. Strahlender Sieger ist der 28 Jahre alte RN-Spitzenkandidat Jordan Bardella, der 31,5 Prozent der Stimmen erhielt und 30 Sitze in Brüssel und Straßburg beanspruchen kann.

Aber ob Bardella ins EU-Parlament einziehen wird, ist nach dem Überraschungscoup Macrons fraglich. Denn alles deutet darauf hin, dass Marine Le Pen ihren „besten Mann“ beauftragt, den Parlamentswahlkampf anzuführen – mit der Perspektive, im Falle eines Wahlsieges Premierminister einer Kohabitationsregierung zu werden. Die dreimalige Präsidentschaftskandidatin hat am Sonntagabend bekundet, ihre Partei sei bereit, die Regierungsverantwortung zu übernehmen. Dennoch konnte sie ihr Erstaunen über Macrons Blitzentscheidung nicht verbergen.

Auf den ersten Blick hat Macron der Forderung Bardellas nachgegeben, nach der „vernichtenden Niederlage“ in der Europawahl innenpolitische Konsequenzen zu ziehen und Neuwahlen anzusetzen. Aber ernsthaft hatte in der Führungsriege des RN niemand damit gerechnet, dass Macron am Wahlabend die Nationalversammlung auflöst.

Das entsprechende Dekret unterzeichnete der Präsident vor Mitternacht, im Amtsblatt Journal Officiel wurde es am Montag veröffentlicht. Damit ist die parlamentarische Arbeit suspendiert. Alle derzeit debattierten Gesetzesvorschläge, darunter auch das mit Spannung verfolgte Gesetz zur Sterbehilfe sowie die Fernseh- und Rundfunkreform, müssen nach den Wahlen neu beraten werden.

Artikel 12 der Verfassung erlaubt es dem Präsidenten nach Rücksprache mit den Präsidenten der beiden Parlamentskammern und dem Regierungschef, die Nationalversammlung aufzulösen. Die Wahlen müssen in einer Frist von 20 bis 40 Tagen organisiert werden. Macron hat sich bewusst für die kürzeste Zeitspanne bis zum ersten Wahlgang entschieden. Am 26. Juli sollen in einer feierlichen Eröffnungszeremonie die Olympischen Sommerspiele in Paris eröffnet werden. Ob dann ein Premierminister Bardella neben dem Präsidenten stehen wird?

“An election is never a gift, and even less so under these conditions,” stated RN deputy chief Sébastien Chenu on tv. He had not anticipated the election to be held so early. “But our country has already lost enough time,” he stated. He assured that “all our candidates will be nominated by the end of the week.”

The hurdle within the parliamentary elections is way larger for Le Pen's social gathering than within the European elections as a result of completely different electoral legislation. In the primary spherical, a member of parliament is simply elected if she or he has obtained a minimum of half of the legitimate votes. The variety of votes have to be a minimum of 25 % of the variety of registered voters within the constituency. In the second spherical, a relative majority is ample, however solely these candidates who obtained a minimum of 12.5 % of the votes of registered voters within the first spherical are allowed to run. The two finest positioned candidates will certainly transfer on to the second spherical, even when voter turnout is simply too low.

Success due to this fact relies upon far more on the events' capacity to kind alliances than with proportional illustration. Each of the 577 constituencies decides who will enter the National Assembly. The nationwide lead to percentages is much less significant. In June 2022, Marine Le Pen's social gathering entered the National Assembly with 89 MPs. To have a authorities majority, it must win 289 parliamentary seats.

Macron took his personal camp unexpectedly with the announcement shortly after 9 p.m. on election night time. The President of the National Assembly, Yaël Braun-Pivet, informed the tv channel France 2 on Monday that Macron's promise to conduct politics otherwise had failed. “There would have been another way, that of a coalition, a government pact,” stated Braun-Pivet. She is an ardent advocate of agreements and political unification processes. “But we are not succeeding in overcoming the party-political squabbles, and that makes me sad.”

This was an allusion to the function of the CDU/CSU's French sister social gathering, the Republicans (LR), which has vehemently opposed a coalition settlement. LR chairman Éric Ciotti celebrated the punishment of Macron's Renaissance social gathering as “the end of Macronism”. He stated: “For us, there is no question of entering into a coalition with a party that has damaged France so much.”

Macron stands for “more taxes, more immigration and more crime”. He introduced an election marketing campaign “based on right-wing values”. Political observers don’t rule out the chance that Ciotti may very well be ready to kind electoral alliances with the RN. The challenge is being hotly debated throughout the social gathering. The results of 7.24 % for the LR listing within the European elections doesn’t point out that the previous president's social gathering has recovered from its electoral defeats.

Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné, in his function as Secretary General of the President's social gathering, defined on Monday {that a} democratic clarification was mandatory. The minority authorities's work had been troublesome over the previous two years. “We will fight. I don't want Marine Le Pen to negotiate with Putin. I don't want Jordan Bardella to receive the international delegations at the Olympics,” Séjourné stated on the radio station France Inter. Renaissance is not going to discipline any opposing candidates within the constituencies whose present MPs belong to the “republican spectrum”. Séjourné didn’t, nonetheless, clarify which events he considers to be a part of the republican spectrum.

The hopelessly divided left-wing events are attempting to kind an electoral alliance known as the Popular Front (Front Populaire). The historic comparability is welcome right here. In 1936, the left-wing events joined forces to cease the rising excessive proper. Ruffin, the socialist social gathering chief Olivier Faure and the communist social gathering chief Fabien Roussel known as for an electoral alliance on Monday. But there have been rapid discordant notes. Faure distanced himself from calls by former presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI) for a turnaround in Israel coverage.

In the Élysée Palace, it was defined that Macron was experiencing a Gaullist second. One can by no means go incorrect when one asks the individuals to talk, stated the President's workers. The founding father of the Fifth Republic, General Charles de Gaulle, despised the social gathering system of parliamentary democracy and due to this fact included within the structure plenty of potentialities for “returning to the people”. “As General de Gaulle said, it is the circumstances that dictate decisions,” they stated. If the acute proper collectively get virtually 40 % of the vote, there isn’t any different method than a “return to the people”.

The granddaughter of the Front National founder and niece of Le Pen, Marion Maréchal, gained 5.5 % of the vote for the Reconquête social gathering. The Élysée additionally identified that “boldness, willingness to take risks and daring” are a trademark of Macron's presidency. The hazard of a right-wing populist victory is brushed apart. Macron's social gathering is operating to win the election.

The announcement of the dissolution was properly thought out. But solely a small staff of advisors was knowledgeable. Supporters embody Macron's man for historical past coverage, the previous journalist Bruno Roger-Petit, and his communications director Jonathan Guémas. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire are stated to have been quite skeptical, as was the President of the National Assembly.

But Macron additionally wished to forestall a vote of no confidence within the finances within the autumn. He has lived as much as his declare to be the “clock master” and set the tempo in France. His announcement has thrown all of the opposition events' plans into disarray.

President Jacques Chirac introduced the dissolution of the National Assembly in April 1997 with comparable confidence. He failed to attain the purpose of “democratic clarification” on the time, and as an alternative there was stagnation and a left-wing authorities. The election victory of the right-wing populists would have far-reaching penalties for German-French relations. Marine Le Pen has repeatedly introduced that she needs to finish all arms packages and block integration steps in different areas reminiscent of vitality and immigration coverage. “I have confidence in the ability of the French people to make the fairest decision for us and future generations,” Macron stated on Monday.