Fuel costs: The false hope of the facility of the cartel guards | EUROtoday

The stress from federal politics is prone to be clearly felt within the Federal Cartel Office in Bonn. Since the start of the vitality worth disaster, triggered by the Iran struggle and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the authority has been portrayed by politicians because the savior of drivers.

The cartel workplace is meant to place the market so as, in view of worth will increase at gasoline stations which have generally reached as much as 2.50 euros for a liter of diesel. In the primary bundle of measures on the finish of March, the Bundestag tightened antitrust legislation for the mineral oil sector, together with the introduction of the once-a-day worth rule.

Now expectations have risen even additional. The Federal Cartel Office ought to not simply drive costs down, but in addition generate further revenue for the state. The workplace isn’t liable for one or the opposite.

Andreas Mundt, President of the Federal Cartel Office, emphasizes at each alternative that it’s not a pricing authority, however a contest authority. And it dampens the present expectations from the federal authorities that the workplace may skim off the earnings of the oil firms and use them to finance the subsidies which have simply been introduced. Such levies are simply as troublesome as levying an “excess profits tax,” Mundt warned in a submit on LinkedIn this week.

Tomaso Duso, chairman of the Monopolies Commission, additionally sees it this manner. A levy is feasible in precept, he says, “but not in the short term and not as a crisis response instrument.” The cartel workplace can both skim off advantages from violations of antitrust legislation, however this requires a confirmed violation. Or it may impose measures following a so-called sector investigation. Such proceedings are already underway on the Cartel Office. According to Duso, it would realistically take a number of years. “The real problem remains: The structural problem in the German fuel market – tacit coordination in an oligopoly without explicit agreement – ​​is not a classic violation of antitrust law,” says Duso. “Without a proven violation, the levy does not apply automatically.”

People don’t love to listen to that within the Bundestag. This Thursday, Parliament will debate the subsequent legislative bundle for drivers – lowering the vitality tax on petrol and diesel by 17 cents per liter for 2 months. Prices at gasoline stations have fallen considerably within the meantime.

Nevertheless, the black-red authorities coalition’s expectations of the antitrust workplace stay excessive: “We have not only tightened antitrust law for show, but we expect the independent antitrust authority to also apply this stricter antitrust law,” mentioned Sepp Müller, deputy parliamentary group chief of the Union, after a gathering of the coalition “task force” on vitality costs within the Bundestag on Tuesday. “It is now also important that the Federal Cartel Office makes use of the options that we introduced in the last package of fuel measures,” mentioned his colleague Armand Zorn from the SPD.

Burden of proof reversed in sector investigations

The MPs are referring to the simplified “sector investigation”, with which the cartel workplace can test whether or not the market is functioning correctly in an space akin to gas wholesale. At the tip of March, they launched, amongst different issues, a reversal of the burden of proof for one of these test. The cartel workplace then requested knowledge instantly from the oil firms. If it finds proof of abuse of energy in sure areas of the market, it may well take motion. However, the workplace can’t decrease costs.

Skimming off earnings can also be not that simple. The present proceedings within the mineral oil market have been operating since March 2025, and the subsequent court docket date is scheduled for this July, “and it’s not even about the main issue, but about the question of whether companies even have to provide information,” says Duso. “Realistically, it will not take months, but rather years, for a legally binding decision and any levy to be made, if this is even possible in a procedure under Section 32f GWB.” The Bundestag lately tightened Section 32f of the Act Against Restraints of Competition.

“We can only seriously say anything about possible sums that could be confiscated once the investigation has been completed,” says Duso. “Comparative values ​​from the 2022 energy crisis suggest three-digit millions – not a negligible amount, but not a fiscal counterweight to the current crisis.” The cartel workplace has already made use of the chances of the final modification to the GWB from the time of the visitors gentle authorities and skimmed off a bonus of 59 million euros from Amazon this yr.

In reality, antitrust legislation “not only provides for measures to be taken to end the abuse after an abuse procedure has been concluded. It also provides that the economic advantage achieved through an antitrust violation can be skimmed off,” confirms Mundt in his article. “There is actually a certain proximity to the idea of ​​an excess profits tax.”

From his viewpoint, this closeness additionally applies to complexity. An “abusive price increase” should even be “identified, determined and decided on,” writes Mundt. Like the tax imposed on vitality firms on the excessive earnings they made after the beginning of Russia’s struggle of aggression in opposition to Ukraine.

As with taxes, lawsuits from the businesses involved can be anticipated if the cartel workplace levies a levy. In the Union, such lawsuits which are nonetheless ongoing in opposition to the “excess profits tax” of 2022 are used as an argument in opposition to a brand new version. In addition, Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his Economics Minister Katherina Reiche (each CDU) argue that “excess profits” can hardly be clearly outlined legally. Mundt and his officers will even face the same downside: “High prices are not forbidden, the abusive level is,” he writes. “There are reasons for the high prices, we have to establish the unfairness of the price level, comparable to the so-called ‘excess profit’.”

SPD desires “excess profits tax”

Another downside arises from the Cartel Office President’s viewpoint: the authority’s proceedings can solely be directed in opposition to particular person firms “where we can prove market dominance and abuse”. The workplace can’t accumulate cash from a complete business, as is feasible with a tax. However, the Federal Cartel Office isn’t toothless both. From 2019 to the start of final yr, it collected a minimum of 1.3 billion euros in fines, in line with the 2025 annual report.

The authorities’s expectation that income from the antitrust workplace would offset the tax minimize on gasoline and diesel is prone to be dissatisfied. This measure alone prices 1.6 billion euros. As a precautionary measure, Federal Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil (SPD) identified after the coalition committee on Monday that they wished to “counter-finance” the expenditure with antitrust and tax measures. The EU Commission is presently analyzing whether or not an “excess profits tax” might be levied once more. Klingbeil and the SPD are in favor of it. It is a really contentious concern within the coalition.

However, the Union and the SPD are surprisingly in settlement relating to selling truthful competitors and in opposition to market abuse. Although enterprise associations had already criticized the primary tightening of antitrust legislation, one other reform in the identical route is predicted to comply with shortly. This can be mentioned within the coming week, mentioned SPD parliamentary group deputy Zorn within the Bundestag.

Antitrust legislation should proceed to be a pointy sword sooner or later, he mentioned. “We will increasingly live in times where we have a high level of market concentration, where we have dysfunctional markets. And the state cannot only ensure that things are fair with relief measures.” The objective of the brand new competitors legislation have to be, “where there is a high concentration and especially in times of crisis, to ensure that consumers do not end up being ripped off. And I would also like to see stronger intervention from the Federal Cartel Office.”

Whether additional adjustments to the legislation are essential for this? The competitors economist Duso considers “further blanket tightening of antitrust law to be of little use.” The enhancements which have already been determined are already transferring in the precise route. “The problem is not the legal framework itself, but the speed of its enforcement. This depends not only on the cartel office, but also on the courts.”

This article was written for the WELT Economic Competence Center and “Business Insider Germany” created.

Daniel Zwick is a enterprise editor in Berlin and studies for WELT on financial and vitality coverage, digitalization and state modernization.