US tariffs may very well be a boon for Turkey, exporters say – DW – 04/12/2025 | EUROtoday

“I have great relations with a man named Erdogan,” United States President Donald Trump stated final week. “I like him, and he likes me. We have never had a problem.”

But his assertion in regards to the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wasn’t fairly true. Relations between the 2 leaders have at instances been fraught. In October 2019, Trump threatened to “totally destroy and obliterate the Turkish economy” if the nation did not obey his needs militarily. In a letter to Erdogan later that month, Trump referred to as on him to make a “good deal” concerning navy tensions within the area, warning the Turkish chief once more that he would break the nation’s economic system if he noticed match.

In the final six years, Turkey has taken a monetary beating, with the lira dropping appreciable worth. In March 2007, one US greenback was value round 1.30 Turkish lira, whereas in October 2019 it was value 5.79, and immediately it’s value 38.06 lira.

Although Trump might have certainly broken the Turkish economic system with earlier sanctions, the 2 leaders appear to get alongside higher immediately than they’ve previously. This could also be evidenced however the truth that Turkey was one of many nations least affected by Trump’s new tariff insurance policies, with a tariff of 10% now imposed on Turkish items. Trump’s 90-day pause on tariffs and the final discount to 10% for all nations besides China have now put different nations on the identical stage as Turkey in the intervening time.

A new alternative?

While the European response to the tariffs has been detrimental, Turkish enterprise representatives see them as a chance reasonably than a disaster. They appear satisfied that with the proper commerce coverage, Turkey can profit from the brand new state of affairs.

The tariffs might assist Turkish exporters particularly to realize a bonus within the extremely aggressive US market, based on Bülent Aymen, deputy president of the Association of Mediterranean Furniture, Paper and Forest Products Exporters. “The US has been our hot market for three years. Our exports are increasing every month. The intensification of the tariff war enables Turkey to gain market share in US sectors such as chemicals, cars, furniture and electronics. We must make good use of this advantage,” Aymen stated.

Trade between Turkey and the US quantities to over $30 billion (€26.4 billion). After Germany, the US is Turkey’s second most necessary buying and selling accomplice. Turkish exports to the US have risen by a median of 16% over the previous 5 years, whereas US exports to Turkey have elevated by 9%. According to the Turkish Exporters Assembly, the nation exported items value round $21.1 billion (€18.6 billion) to Germany in 2023, and earned round $14.8 billion from exports to the US. According to the Turkish Statistical Institute, exports to the US rose to $16.3 billion on the finish of 2024.

Turkey exports primarily chemical merchandise, automotive components, clothes, carpets and electronics to the US. It imports over half of its cotton from the US — for textiles that then find yourself exported again to the identical nation.

Trump’s excessive tariffs in opposition to China and the European Union might enhance the visibility of Turkish merchandise on the US market, stated Seref Fayat, the textile commissioner on the Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey. “We need to act quickly now. We can use the problems that China, Vietnam and Cambodia are likely to have to our advantage.”

Criticism of Turkey’s commerce coverage

Fayat is optimistic about the way forward for commerce with Trump’s America. “I don’t expect Turkey to be negatively affected by the new situation,” he stated, including that he would recommend negotiating restricted tariff-free commerce with the US. “This is a very important opportunity. However, we must closely monitor how our most important trading partner, the EU, will be affected by the US tariff policy,” he warned.

But some in Turkey are nonetheless solely cautiously optimistic. While the potential is there, many Turkish firms will not be but able to make the most of it, stated Murat Akyüz, former president of the Istanbul Chemicals and Chemical Products Exporters Association. “I see the new US tariff policy as a great opportunity for Turkey. At the same time, I think exporters in Turkey are not sufficiently prepared.” In the previous, many alternatives weren’t exploited as a result of “no sustainable trade policy was pursued,” he added.

Fayat additionally sees potential points, corresponding to restricted entry to Turkish merchandise within the US as a consequence of an absence of commerce facilities and warehouses. “Although Trump announced these tariffs a long time ago, we unfortunately did not make the necessary preparations,” he stated.

A possible manufacturing hub

In addition to exports, Turkey might set up itself as a strategic participant in one other subject: As a manufacturing location for Asian firms. Inviting firms from China to have their merchandise manufactured in Turkey would assist them keep away from excessive customs duties, for instance. The geopolitical state of affairs as a bridge between East and West might favor such an association.

“We need to explain to these countries, especially China, the advantages of relocating production to Turkey,” Akyüz stated. “We should actively promote investment in this country. With its infrastructure and skilled labor potential, Turkey is well positioned for this. The Ministry of Trade in particular has a role to play here.”

This article was initially written in German.